Demographic Uncertainty in Europe. Implications on Macro Economic Trends and Pension Reforms
Ageing is a main concern in Western Europe for the present half century. It impinges heavily upon the financing of retirement because a shrinking labour force will entail decelerating growth. Moreover, contrary to popular opinion and to most prospective studies which rely on deterministic demographic projections, the determinants of population size and structure are stochastic. The present paper makes use of the INGENUE2 model to assess the economic impact of demographic uncertainty in Western Europe. Demographic uncertainty affects saving, financial conditions and growth significantly from year 2025 onwards. Worst case scenarios can have crippling effects on the financing of public pension under present retirement policies. It makes all the more necessary to study alternatives. We simulate a policy that involves the development of a funding system to substitute to part of the projected increase in the contribution rate, both under deterministic and stochastic demographic forecasts
|Date of creation:||Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 33 01 53 68 55 00
Fax: 33 01 53 68 55 01
Web page: http://www.cepii.fr
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Vincent Delbecque & Isabelle Méjean & Lise Patureau, 2008. "Social Competition and Firms' Location Choices," Working Papers 2008-12, CEPII research center.
- Matthieu Crozet & Pamina Koenig & Vincent Rebeyrol, 2008. "Exporting to Insecure Markets: a Firm-Level Analysis," Working Papers 2008-13, CEPII research center.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.