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Demographic Uncertainty in Europe. Implications on Macro Economic Trends and Pension Reforms

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  • Michel Aglietta
  • Vladimir Borgy

Abstract

Ageing is a main concern in Western Europe for the present half century. It impinges heavily upon the financing of retirement because a shrinking labour force will entail decelerating growth. Moreover, contrary to popular opinion and to most prospective studies which rely on deterministic demographic projections, the determinants of population size and structure are stochastic. The present paper makes use of the INGENUE2 model to assess the economic impact of demographic uncertainty in Western Europe. Demographic uncertainty affects saving, financial conditions and growth significantly from year 2025 onwards. Worst case scenarios can have crippling effects on the financing of public pension under present retirement policies. It makes all the more necessary to study alternatives. We simulate a policy that involves the development of a funding system to substitute to part of the projected increase in the contribution rate, both under deterministic and stochastic demographic forecasts

Suggested Citation

  • Michel Aglietta & Vladimir Borgy, 2008. "Demographic Uncertainty in Europe. Implications on Macro Economic Trends and Pension Reforms," Working Papers 2008-22, CEPII research center.
    • Handle: RePEc:cii:cepidt:2008-22
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Computable General Equilibrium Models; International capital flows; Life cycle models and saving; Demographic trends and forecasts;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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