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Fiscal Episodes in the EMU: Elasticities and Non-Keynesian Effects

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  • António Afonso
  • Frederico Silva Leal

Abstract

We estimate short- and long-run elasticities of private consumption for fiscal instruments, using a Fixed Effects model for the 19-euro area countries during the period of 1960-2017, to assess how fiscal elasticities vary during fiscal episodes. According to the results, positive “tax revenue” elasticities indicate that consumers have a Ricardian behaviour, whereby they perceive an increase in taxation to be a sign of future government spending. “Social benefits” appear to have a non-keynesian effect on private consumption. In addition, using a narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidations, it is seen that private consumption continues to exhibit a non-keynesian response to tax increases, both in the short and long-run, and “other expenditures” have a recessive impact during “normal times”. Furthermore, “social benefits” are more contractionary in consolidations than in both expansions and “normal times”. Additionally, after the launch of the EMU, expansionary fiscal consolidations became harder to observe, and “other expenditure” and “investment” lost their non-keynesian role.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & Frederico Silva Leal, 2019. "Fiscal Episodes in the EMU: Elasticities and Non-Keynesian Effects," EconPol Working Paper 30, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:econwp:_30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    2. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    3. António Afonso, 2001. "Non-Keynesian Effects of Fiscal Policy in the EU-15," Working Papers Department of Economics 2001/07, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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