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Do Elections Moderate or Polarize Political Rhetoric?

Author

Listed:
  • Tito Boeri
  • Nina Nikiforova
  • Guido Tabellini

Abstract

This paper studies how elections shape political communication. We formulate a theory of electoral competition with costly communication. If opposite candidates reach different audiences with their messages, they diverge and seek to polarize the electorate. We then analyze Twitter/X communication by 367 political leaders in 21 countries during 2013-2022, focusing on competition between populists and non-populists. Following Gentzkow, Shapiro and Taddy (2019), we estimate a structural model of speech and show that political rhetoric becomes more polarized before the election. This reflects two main theoretical mechanisms: politicians increasingly emphasize issues distinctive of their type, and within each issue, they use more extreme language.

Suggested Citation

  • Tito Boeri & Nina Nikiforova & Guido Tabellini, 2026. "Do Elections Moderate or Polarize Political Rhetoric?," CESifo Working Paper Series 12558, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12558
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • H00 - Public Economics - - General - - - General
    • P00 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - General - - - General

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