IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ces/ceswps/_12476.html

The Potential and Utility of Land Value Taxation: A Theoretical Framework and Simulation for China

Author

Listed:
  • Yilin Hou
  • Michael Kumhof
  • Lei Shao

Abstract

This paper develops an analytical framework for examining land taxation in the context of contemporary urban economies. We dissect the China case for simulation, comparing two model-based scenarios where revenue losses from consumption taxes are replaced by higher income taxes and land taxes. We calibrate the model to year-2015 data and find that higher income taxes cause large losses in output and income, while higher land taxes lead to substantive gains that increase with land share in net wealth. This paper offers empirical explorations in revitalizing the land tax, with simulation results at a large country level for generalization.

Suggested Citation

  • Yilin Hou & Michael Kumhof & Lei Shao, 2026. "The Potential and Utility of Land Value Taxation: A Theoretical Framework and Simulation for China," CESifo Working Paper Series 12476, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12476
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.ifo.de/DocDL/cesifo1_wp12476.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gregor Schwerhoff & Ottmar Edenhofer & Marc Fleurbaey, 2020. "Taxation Of Economic Rents," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 398-423, April.
    2. Wilde, Joshua, 2012. "How substitutable are fixed factors in production? evidence from pre-industrial England," MPRA Paper 39278, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Zhao Chen & Yuxuan He & Zhikuo Liu & Juan Carlos Suárez Serrato & Daniel Yi Xu, 2021. "The Structure of Business Taxation in China," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 131-177.
    4. Mark Blaug, 2000. "Henry George: rebel with a cause," The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(2), pages 270-288.
    5. Hongbin Cai & J. Vernon Henderson & Qinghua Zhang, 2013. "China's land market auctions: evidence of corruption?," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 44(3), pages 488-521, September.
    6. Gabriel Ahlfeldt & Daniel McMillen, 2014. "New Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution of Land for Capital," ERSA conference papers ersa14p108, European Regional Science Association.
    7. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 50(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    8. Chamley, Christophe, 1986. "Optimal Taxation of Capital Income in General Equilibrium with Infinite Lives," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(3), pages 607-622, May.
    9. Paula Bustos & Bruno Caprettini & Jacopo Ponticelli, 2016. "Agricultural Productivity and Structural Transformation: Evidence from Brazil," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(6), pages 1320-1365, June.
    10. Liu, Yong & Fan, Peilei & Yue, Wenze & Song, Yan, 2018. "Impacts of land finance on urban sprawl in China: The case of Chongqing," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 420-432.
    11. Yilin Hou & Lin Li & Lei Shao, 2025. "A Policy Reversal as Structural Break: A Lesson from China’s Land Lease Financing for Infrastructure," CESifo Working Paper Series 12356, CESifo.
    12. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2012. "Review of Estimates of the Frisch Elasticity of Labor Supply: Working Paper 2012-13," Working Papers 43676, Congressional Budget Office.
    13. Matthew Rognlie, 2015. "Deciphering the Fall and Rise in the Net Capital Share: Accumulation or Scarcity?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(1 (Spring), pages 1-69.
    14. Rong Li & Guangrong Ma, 2017. "Personal-Income-Tax Reforms and Effective-Tax Functions in China," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 73(3), pages 317-340, September.
    15. Thorsnes, Paul, 1997. "Consistent Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution between Land and Non-Land Inputs in the Production of Housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 98-108, July.
    16. Chirinko, Robert S., 2008. "[sigma]: The long and short of it," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 671-686, June.
    17. Chen, Ting & Kung, J.K.-S., 2016. "Do land revenue windfalls create a political resource curse? Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 86-106.
    18. Diamond, Peter A, 1998. "Optimal Income Taxation: An Example with a U-Shaped Pattern of Optimal Marginal Tax Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(1), pages 83-95, March.
    19. Judd, Kenneth L., 1985. "Redistributive taxation in a simple perfect foresight model," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 59-83, October.
    20. Herd,Richard, 2020. "Estimating Capital Formation and Capital Stock by Economic Sector in China : The Implications for Productivity Growth," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9317, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kumhof, Michael & Tideman, Nicolaus & Hudson, Michael & Goodhart, Charles, 2021. "Post-Corona Balanced-Budget Super-Stimulus: The Case for Shifting Taxes onto Land," CEPR Discussion Papers 16652, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Louis Kaplow, 2022. "Optimal Income Taxation," NBER Working Papers 30199, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Louis Kaplow, 2024. "Optimal Income Taxation," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 62(2), pages 637-738, June.
    4. Bonnet, Odran & Chapelle, Guillaume & Trannoy, Alain & Wasmer, Etienne, 2021. "Land is back, it should be taxed, it can be taxed," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    5. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/56k383m9o9kpb1g6f8rvv74ok is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/1eob9f9aas9q18hfjsiqhggvi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Odran Bonnet & Guillaume Flamerie de la Chapelle & Alain Trannoy & Etienne Wasmer, 2019. "Secular trends in Wealth and Heterogeneous Capital: Land is back...and should be taxed," SciencePo Working papers hal-03541411, HAL.
    8. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/1eob9f9aas9q18hfjsiqhggvi2 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Richters, Oliver & Siemoneit, Andreas, 2021. "Making markets just: Reciprocity violations as key intervention points," ZOE Discussion Papers 7, ZOE. institute for future-fit economies, Bonn.
    10. Odran Bonnet & Guillaume Flamerie de La Chapelle & Alain Trannoy & Etienne Wasmer, 2019. "Secular Trends in Wealth and Heterogeneous Capital: Land is Back... and Should Be Taxed," Working Papers hal-03570837, HAL.
    11. Miles, David & Sefton, James, 2017. "Houses across time and across place," CEPR Discussion Papers 12103, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Bierbrauer Felix J., 2016. "Effizienz oder Gerechtigkeit?: Ungleiche Einkommen, ungleiche Vermögen und Optimale Steuern," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 2-24, April.
    13. Gregor Schwerhoff & Ottmar Edenhofer & Marc Fleurbaey, 2020. "Taxation Of Economic Rents," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(2), pages 398-423, April.
    14. Wojciech Kopczuk, 2012. "Taxation of Intergenerational Transfers and Wealth," NBER Working Papers 18584, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Fernando del Río & Francisco‐Xavier Lores, 2023. "Accounting for the role of investment frictions in recessions," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 90(360), pages 1089-1118, October.
    16. Mikhail Golosov & Aleh Tsyvinski & Nicolas Werquin, 2014. "A Variational Approach to the Analysis of Tax Systems," NBER Working Papers 20780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. N. Gregory Mankiw & Matthew Weinzierl & Danny Yagan, 2009. "Optimal Taxation in Theory and Practice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 23(4), pages 147-174, Fall.
    18. Fabian Kindermann & Dirk Krueger, 2014. "High Marginal Tax Rates on the Top 1%? Lessons from a Life Cycle Model with Idiosyncratic Income Risk," NBER Working Papers 20601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Carlier, Guillaume & Dupuis, Xavier & Rochet, Jean-Charles & Thanassoulis, John, 2024. "A general solution to the quasi linear screening problem," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C).
    20. Hector Sala & Pedro Trivín, 2018. "The effects of globalization and technology on the elasticity of substitution," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(3), pages 617-647, August.
    21. Wojciech Kopczuk, 2010. "Economics of estate taxation: a brief review of theory and evidence," NBER Working Papers 15741, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Bas Jacobs, 2013. "From Optimal Tax Theory to Applied Tax Policy," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 69(3), pages 338-389, September.
    23. Stefania Albanesi & Christopher Sleet, 2006. "Dynamic Optimal Taxation with Private Information," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(1), pages 1-30.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12476. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Klaus Wohlrabe (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cesifde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.