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Criminal career trajectories

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  • Tom Kirchmaier
  • Daniel Matter
  • Miriam Schirmer

Abstract

This study analyzes criminal career trajectories using a unique administrative dataset of 230,578 individuals arrested and over 620,000 criminal offenses recorded by Greater Manchester Police between 2008 and 2019. Moving beyond static co-offending networks, we model individual offense sequences as transitions within a multilayer directed crime network. This allows us to capture temporal dependence and structural progression across crime types and provides a scalable method to analyze criminal trajectories at the population level. We find that the majority of potential offenders (almost 60%) are arrested for only a single recorded offense. Among repeat offenders, specialization deepens over time: the likelihood of being arrested for the same type of crime again rises steadily across consecutive offenses, most strongly for shoplifting, burglary, and fraud. Only 9.14% of persistent offenders remain within a single crime category throughout their recorded career, making diversification the norm rather than the exception among high-frequency offenders. Within these cross-category transitions, public order offenses and weapon possession consistently precede violent crime at every career stage, suggesting structured pathways that may serve as early intervention points.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Kirchmaier & Daniel Matter & Miriam Schirmer, 2026. "Criminal career trajectories," CEP Discussion Papers dp2168, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    • Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2168
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