IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Unemployment, Oil Prices and the Real Interest Rate: Evidence from Canada and the UK

  • A Carruth
  • M Hooker
  • A Oswald

There is still little agreement about what caused the large movement in unemployment in the industrialized nations in the 1970s and 1980s. This paper constructs a simple model in which the equilibrium rate of unemployment depends upon the real rate of interest and the real price of oil. When confronted with data from Canada and the UK, there is some support for the model's predictions. Granger-casualty tests and regression results suggest that the real oil price is especially important. If a dynamic model is estimated up to the start of the 1980s, it successfully predicts (out of a sample) the behaviour of unemployment over the ensuing period. Nevertheless, an unexplained secular trend in unemployment is visible in the data.

To our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.

Paper provided by Centre for Economic Performance, LSE in its series CEP Discussion Papers with number dp0188.

in new window

Date of creation: Feb 1994
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0188
Contact details of provider: Web page:

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp0188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.