IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdp/texdis/td635.html

Global shocks and trade response of a commodity exporter small open economy: Terms of Trade, J-Curve and the Marshall-Lerner Condition

Author

Listed:
  • Marcelo Randolfo da Costa Januário

    (LCA Consultores)

  • Mauro Sayar Ferreira

    (UFMG)

Abstract

We evaluate the presence of the J-curve and the Marshall-Lerner condition after recognizing that terms of trade respond endogenously to global demand and supply shocks, which we identify from a structural VAR estimated with Bayesian techniques for the Brazilian economy, a small open economy with a strong commodity sector. The J-curve is not observed for total trade, capital goods, or consumption goods, but it is verified for fuel, which Brazil exports and imports. The Marshall-Lerner condition is mostly verified, but the volume exported tends not to behave as expected considering its relation to terms of trade, since global income effect plays a major role for determining the quantum exported. The volume imported reacts as expected based on its relation to terms of trade and domestic GDP, with the last appearing to play the most prominent role. The expansion in the exported volume of capital and consumption goods following an improvement in terms of trade runs against the presence of the Dutch disease, at least in the business cycle frequency.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcelo Randolfo da Costa Januário & Mauro Sayar Ferreira, 2021. "Global shocks and trade response of a commodity exporter small open economy: Terms of Trade, J-Curve and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 635, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td635
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20635.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mendoza, Enrique G, 1995. "The Terms of Trade, the Real Exchange Rate, and Economic Fluctuations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 36(1), pages 101-137, February.
    2. Backus, David K & Kehoe, Patrick J & Kydland, Finn E, 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(1), pages 84-103, March.
    3. Stephanie Schmitt†Grohé & Martín Uribe, 2018. "How Important Are Terms†Of†Trade Shocks?," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(1), pages 85-111, February.
    4. Boyd, Derick & Caporale, Gugielmo Maria & Smith, Ron, 2001. "Real Exchange Rate Effects on the Balance of Trade: Cointegration and the Marshall-Lerner Condition," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(3), pages 187-200, July.
    5. Drechsel, Thomas & Tenreyro, Silvana, 2018. "Commodity booms and busts in emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 200-218.
    6. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-968, November.
    7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    8. Senhadji, Abdelhak S., 1998. "Dynamics of the trade balance and the terms of trade in LDCs: The S-curve," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 105-131, October.
    9. Dolado, Juan J & Charnavoki, Valery, 2012. "The effects of global shocks on small commodity-exporting economies: New evidence from Canada," CEPR Discussion Papers 8825, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carrasco, Alex & Florián, David & Nivín, Rafael, 2019. "SFX Interventions, Financial Intermediation, and External Shocks in Emerging Economies," Working Papers 2019-022, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú.
    2. Luis N. Lanteri, 2015. "Efecto Harberger-Laursen-Metzler. Evidencia para Argentina (1986-2014)," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 1, pages 1-1, December.
    3. Villca, Alfredo, 2022. "Commodity prices, bank balance sheets and macroprudential policies in small open economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 3(1).
    4. Gabriel Rodriguez & Paul Castillo B. & Junior A. Ojeda Cunya, 2024. "Time-Varying Effects of External Shocks on Macroeconomic Fluctuations in Peru: An Empirical Application using TVP-VAR-SV Models," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(5), pages 1015-1050, November.
    5. Romain Houssa & Jolan Mohimont & Chris Otrok, 2019. "A Model for International Spillovers to Emerging Markets," CESifo Working Paper Series 7702, CESifo.
    6. Avila-Montealegre, Oscar & Mix, Carter, 2024. "Common trade exposure and business cycle comovement," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    7. Hakan Berument & Nergiz Dincer, 2005. "Denomination composition of trade and trade balance: evidence from Turkey," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(10), pages 1177-1191.
    8. Otto, G., 2003. "Terms of trade shocks and the balance of trade: there is a Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 155-184, April.
    9. Fabio Canova, 2005. "The transmission of US shocks to Latin America," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 229-251.
    10. Mauro Sayar Ferreira & André Cordeiro Valério, 2020. "Global shocks and emerging economies: disentangling the commodity roller coaster," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG 623, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    11. Vincent Bodart & François Courtoy & Erica Perego, 2021. "World Interest Rates and Macroeconomic Adjustments in Developing Commodity Producing Countries," Working Papers 2021-01, CEPII research center.
    12. Dainauskas, Justas, 2023. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    13. Carrasco, Alex & Florián Hoyle, David, 2025. "External shocks and FX intervention policy in financially dollarized economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Houssa, Romain & Mohimont, Jolan & Otrok, Christopher, 2023. "Commodity exports, financial frictions, and international spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    15. CARDI, Oliver & BERTINELLI, Luisito, 2004. "A formal model of krugman’s intuition on the J-curve," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2004043, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    16. Naraidoo, Ruthira & Paez-Farrell, Juan, 2023. "Commodity price shocks, labour market dynamics and monetary policy in small open economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    17. Dainauskas, Justas, 2023. "Time-varying exchange rate pass-through into terms of trade," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 120000, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Mitchener, Kris James & Pina, Gonçalo, 2023. "The effects of countercyclical interest rates: Evidence from the classical gold standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    19. Alfredo Villca & Alejandro Torres-García, 2023. "Commodity price shocks and the business cycles in emerging economies: the role of banking system balance sheets," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2039-2063, November.
    20. Cardi, Olivier, 2007. "Another View Of The J-Curve," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(2), pages 153-174, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td635. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gustavo Britto (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/pufmgbr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.