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Fisheries Management Implications of Intrinsic Under Identification of Growth Equation Parameters

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  • Carson, Richard T
  • Murray, Jason H.

Abstract

Fisheries are subject to multiple forms of uncertainty. One of these, parameter uncertainty, has been largely ignored in the fisheries economics literature even though it is known elsewhere (e.g., macroeconomics) to play an important role in models with a similar structure. We model management of a renewable resource with unknown growth parameters and simulate estimation of the key parameters of the growth equation. Even with predictability high by typical standards and the true data generating process serving as the model, management of the fishery is problematic. A simple heuristic alternative making less intensive use of the data performs better.

Suggested Citation

  • Carson, Richard T & Murray, Jason H., 2012. "Fisheries Management Implications of Intrinsic Under Identification of Growth Equation Parameters," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8bw0b76s, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsdec:qt8bw0b76s
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Geweke, John, 1986. "Exact Inference in the Inequality Constrained Normal Linear Regression Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 1(2), pages 127-141, April.
    2. Brock, William A. & Durlauf, Steven N. & Nason, James M. & Rondina, Giacomo, 2007. "Simple versus optimal rules as guides to policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(5), pages 1372-1396, July.
    3. Smith, Martin D. & Zhang, Junjie & Coleman, Felicia C., 2008. "Econometric modeling of fisheries with complex life histories: Avoiding biological management failures," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 265-280, May.
    4. Christopher Costello & Stephen Polasky & Andrew Solow, 2001. "Renewable resource management with environmental prediction," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 196-211, February.
    5. Clark, Colin W. & Kirkwood, Geoffrey P., 1986. "On uncertain renewable resource stocks: Optimal harvest policies and the value of stock surveys," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 235-244, September.
    6. H. Scott Gordon, 1954. "The Economic Theory of a Common-Property Resource: The Fishery," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 62, pages 124-124.
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    Keywords

    Social and Behavioral Sciences; Fishery management; simulation; estimation;

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