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Renewable resource management with environmental prediction

Author

Listed:
  • Christopher Costello
  • Stephen Polasky
  • Andrew Solow

Abstract

Variations in environmental conditions affect renewable resource growth. The ability to predict such variations is improving, providing scope for improved management. We generalize a common stochastic stock recruitment model to explore how optimal management changes with environmental prediction. We obtain three main results. First, while it might seem that a prediction of adverse future conditions should lead to more conservative management, the opposite may be true. Second, optimal management requires only a one-period-ahead forecast, suggesting forecast accuracy is more important than forecast lead time. Finally, we derive conditions on environmental fluctuations guaranteeing positive optimal harvest in every period.

Suggested Citation

  • Christopher Costello & Stephen Polasky & Andrew Solow, 2001. "Renewable resource management with environmental prediction," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 34(1), pages 196-211, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cje:issued:v:34:y:2001:i:1:p:196-211
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Koji Kotani & Makoto Kakinaka & Hiroyuki Matsuda, 2008. "Optimal escapement levels on renewable resource management under process uncertainty: some implications of convex unit harvest cost," Environmental Economics and Policy Studies, Springer;Society for Environmental Economics and Policy Studies - SEEPS, vol. 9(2), pages 107-118, June.
    2. Christopher Costello & Bruno Nkuiya & Nicolas Querou, 2017. "Extracting spatial resources under possible regime shift," Working Papers 17-07, LAMETA, Universtiy of Montpellier.
    3. Costello, Christopher & Quérou, Nicolas & Tomini, Agnes, 2015. "Partial enclosure of the commons," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C), pages 69-78.
    4. Sethi, Gautam & Costello, Christopher & Fisher, Anthony & Hanemann, Michael & Karp, Larry, 2005. "Fishery management under multiple uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 300-318, September.
    5. Leizarowitz, Arie & Tsur, Yacov, 2012. "Renewable resource management with stochastic recharge and environmental threats," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 736-753.
    6. Jules Selles, 2018. "Fisheries management: what uncertainties matter?," Working Papers hal-01824238, HAL.
    7. Ute Kapaun & Martin Quaas, 2013. "Does the Optimal Size of a Fish Stock Increase with Environmental Uncertainties?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 54(2), pages 293-310, February.
    8. Santanu Roy & Itzhak Zilcha, 2012. "Stochastic growth with short-run prediction of shocks," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(3), pages 539-580, November.
    9. Baggio, Michele & Fackler, Paul L., 2016. "Optimal management with reversible regime shifts," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 124-136.
    10. McGough Bruce & Plantinga Andrew J. & Costello Christopher, 2009. "Optimally Managing a Stochastic Renewable Resource under General Economic Conditions," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-31, December.
    11. Carson, Richard T & Murray, Jason H., 2012. "Fisheries Management Implications of Intrinsic Under Identification of Growth Equation Parameters," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt8bw0b76s, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    12. repec:oup:renvpo:v:12:y:2018:i:1:p:92-112. is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Richard Carson & Clive Granger & Jeremy Jackson & Wolfram Schlenker, 2009. "Fisheries Management Under Cyclical Population Dynamics," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 42(3), pages 379-410, March.
    14. Singh, Rajesh & Weninger, Quinn & Doyle, Matthew, 2006. "Fisheries management with stock growth uncertainty and costly capital adjustment," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 582-599, September.
    15. Sethi, Gautam & Costello, Christopher & Fisher, Anthony & Hanemann, Michael & Karp, Larry, 2005. "Fishery management under multiple uncertainty," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 300-318, September.
    16. Strand,Jon & Siddiqui,Sauleh, 2015. "Value of improved information about forest protection values, with application to rainforest valuation," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7423, The World Bank.
    17. Marten, Alex L. & Moore, Christopher C., 2011. "An options based bioeconomic model for biological and chemical control of invasive species," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(11), pages 2050-2061, September.
    18. Martin F. Quaas & Ralph Winkler, 2017. "A Market Mechanism for Sustainable and Efficient Resource Use under Uncertainty," CESifo Working Paper Series 6524, CESifo Group Munich.
    19. Duncan Knowler, 2002. "A Review of Selected Bioeconomic Models with Environmental Influences in Fisheries," Journal of Bioeconomics, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 163-181, May.
    20. Machina, Mark J, 2002. "Robustifying the Classical Model of Risk Preferences and Beliefs," University of California at San Diego, Economics Working Paper Series qt1xt4c2qb, Department of Economics, UC San Diego.
    21. Costello, Christopher & Polasky, Stephen, 2008. "Optimal harvesting of stochastic spatial resources," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 1-18, July.

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