IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cdl/anderf/qt7j94111c.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Hubris, Learning, and M&A Decisions

Author

Listed:
  • Aktas, Nihat
  • de Bodt, Eric
  • Roll, Richard

Abstract

Are CEOs unable to learn? This surprising question deserves to be raised in the light of the declining pattern of cumulative abnormal returns observed in M&A programs. This paper shows that this pattern is the expected ex post empirical evidence for rational risk averse CEOs. Our theoretical argument is that from deal to deal, rational CEOs become more aggressive in the bidding process. They concede increasing fractions of expected synergies to the target shareholders in order to win the bidding game. For CEOs infected by hubris, the learning process should allow them to progressively correct over-optimism and overconfidence, if they survive.

Suggested Citation

  • Aktas, Nihat & de Bodt, Eric & Roll, Richard, 2005. "Hubris, Learning, and M&A Decisions," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt7j94111c, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt7j94111c
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/7j94111c.pdf;origin=repeccitec
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Roll, Richard, 1986. "The Hubris Hypothesis of Corporate Takeovers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 197-216, April.
    2. Jonathan B. Berk, 2004. "Valuation and Return Dynamics of New Ventures," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(1), pages 1-35.
    3. Hall, Brian J. & Murphy, Kevin J., 2002. "Stock options for undiversified executives," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-42, February.
    4. Brian J. Hall & Jeffrey B. Liebman, 1998. "Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 653-691.
    5. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 1989. "Management entrenchment : The case of manager-specific investments," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 123-139, November.
    6. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 110-110.
    7. Mitchell, Mark L & Lehn, Kenneth, 1990. "Do Bad Bidders Become Good Targets?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(2), pages 372-398, April.
    8. Schipper, Katherine & Thompson, Rex, 1983. "Evidence on the capitalized value of merger activity for acquiring firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1-4), pages 85-119, April.
    9. Omesh Kini & William Kracaw & Shehzad Mian, 2004. "The Nature of Discipline by Corporate Takeovers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(4), pages 1511-1552, August.
    10. Berkovitch, Elazar & Narayanan, M. P., 1993. "Motives for Takeovers: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(03), pages 347-362, September.
    11. Henry G. Manne, 1965. "Mergers and the Market for Corporate Control," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 73, pages 351-351.
    12. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W., 2003. "Stock market driven acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(3), pages 295-311, December.
    13. Joseph P. H. Fan & Vidhan K. Goyal, 2006. "On the Patterns and Wealth Effects of Vertical Mergers," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(2), pages 877-902, March.
    14. Sudip Datta, 2001. "Executive Compensation and Corporate Acquisition Decisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(6), pages 2299-2336, December.
    15. Jensen, Michael C, 1986. "Agency Costs of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance, and Takeovers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(2), pages 323-329, May.
    16. Zeira, Joseph, 1987. "Investment as a Process of Search," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(1), pages 204-210, February.
    17. Richard J. Rosen, 2004. "Betcha can’t acquire just one: merger programs and compensation," Working Paper Series WP-04-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    18. Mark L. Mitchell & Kenneth Lehn, 1990. "Do Bad Bidders Become Good Targets?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 3(2), pages 60-69.
    19. Rafael Rob, 1991. "Learning and Capacity Expansion under Demand Uncertainty," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(4), pages 655-675.
    20. Jovanovic, Boyan, 1982. "Selection and the Evolution of Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 649-670, May.
    21. Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert W, 1988. "Value Maximization and the Acquisition Process," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(1), pages 7-20, Winter.
    22. repec:hrv:faseco:30748164 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cdl:anderf:qt7j94111c. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Lisa Schiff). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/aguclus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.