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The Real Interest Rate Spread as a Monetary Policy Indicator

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  • Browne, Frank

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

  • Everett, Mary

    (Central Bank and Financial Services Authority of Ireland)

Abstract

This paper employs a consumption-based capital asset pricing model to derive the generalised Fisher equation, in order to estimate the natural rate of interest and corresponding real interest rate spread for the US. Analysis reveals not only is the estimated real interest rate spread a useful measure of the degree of looseness/tightness in the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance, but also the variable contributes substantially to an understanding of the evolution of US inflation over the period 1960-2005.

Suggested Citation

  • Browne, Frank & Everett, Mary, 2006. "The Real Interest Rate Spread as a Monetary Policy Indicator," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
  • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:6/rt/06
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Neiss, Katharine S. & Nelson, Edward, 2003. "The Real-Interest-Rate Gap As An Inflation Indicator," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 239-262, April.
    2. A. Steven Holland, 1984. "Real interest rates: what accounts for their recent rise?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Dec, pages 18-29.
    3. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1992. "Interpreting the Movements in Short-Term Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-429, July.
    4. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1984. "Perspectives on High World Real Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 15(2), pages 273-334.
    5. David L. Reifschneider & John C. Williams, 2000. "Three lessons for monetary policy in a low-inflation era," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, pages 936-978.
    6. Mascaro, Angelo & Meltzer, Allan H., 1983. "Long- and short-term interest rates in a risky world," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 485-518, November.
    7. Koedijk, Kees & Kool, Clemens & Nissen, Francois, 1998. "Real interest rates and shifts in macroeconomic volatility," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(3), pages 241-261, September.
    8. Reifschneider, David & Willams, John C, 2000. "Three Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low-Inflation Era," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 936-966, November.
    9. Tzavalis, Elias & Wickens, M. R., 1996. "Forecasting inflation from the term structure," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 103-122, May.
    10. Lucas, Robert Jr., 1990. "Liquidity and interest rates," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 237-264, April.
    11. Fuerst, Timothy S., 1992. "Liquidity, loanable funds, and real activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 3-24, February.
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