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Interpreting the Movements in Short-Term Interest Rates


  • Evans, Martin
  • Wachtel, Paul


This article uses modern asset pricing theory to examine the behavior of short-term nominal interest rates over the past twenty-five years. The analysis investigates whether variation in the stochastic behavior of consumption growth and inflation can explain movements in the rate of interest. The model estimated allows for taste shocks to utility. The authors' results reveal that much of the month-to-month movement in nominal interest rates reflects changes in the real rate and the risk premia in addition to inflationary expectations. Copyright 1992 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1992. "Interpreting the Movements in Short-Term Interest Rates," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 65(3), pages 395-429, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:65:y:1992:i:3:p:395-429

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    Cited by:

    1. Browne, Frank & Everett, Mary, 2006. "The Real Interest Rate Spread as a Monetary Policy Indicator," Research Technical Papers 6/RT/06, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Christian Mose Nielsen, 2005. "The information content of the term structure of interest rates about future inflation – an illustration of the importance of accounting for a time-varying real interest rate and inflation risk premiu," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2005 86, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    3. Pamela Jervis, 2007. "Inflation Compensation and Its Components in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 10(2), pages 27-56, August.
    4. Karen K. Lewis & Martin D. Evans, 1992. "Do Expected Shifts in Inflation Policy Affect Real Rates?," NBER Working Papers 4134, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Ali Kutan & Tansu Aksoy, 2003. "Public Information Arrival and the Fisher Effect in Emerging Markets: Evidence from Stock and Bond Markets in Turkey," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 23(3), pages 225-239, June.
    6. Ayelet Balsam & Shmuel Kandel & Ori Levy, "undated". "Ex-Ante Real Rates and Inflation Risk Premiums: A Consumption-Based Approach," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 22-98, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
    7. Gregory Connor & Lisa R. Goldberg & Robert A. Korajczyk, 2010. "Portfolio Risk Analysis," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 9224, June.
    8. Hans-Jürg Büttler, 2002. "The information content of the yield curve," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Market functioning and central bank policy, volume 12, pages 298-328 Bank for International Settlements.
    9. Madureira, Leonardo, 2007. "The ex ante real rate and inflation premium under a habit consumption model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 355-382, June.

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