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Fiscal fan charts - A tool for assessing member states’ (likely?) compliance with EU fiscal rules

Author

Listed:
  • Cronin, David

    (Central Bank of Ireland)

  • Dowd, Kevin

    (Cass Business School, City University, London)

Abstract

This paper sets out a methodology for constructing fan charts for the government deficit and debt ratios over the medium-term. It relies on information contained in Stability/Convergence Programme Updates, a model of the relevant stochastic process (for example, the real GDP process) or processes, and a parameter estimate of the sensitivity of the primary budget balance to the output gap for the member state under consideration. A model of the dynamic deficit-debt relationship allows the impact of random output growth to work its way through the fiscal arithmetic in a consistent and traceable way to produce fan charts over a five-year forecast horizon. The initial set of fiscal fan charts included here for Ireland use the indicative public finance projections set out in the 2011 Update for Ireland. The range of possible fiscal outcomes in the charts assumes no fiscal policy response to any change in the budgetary position over the period such as could arise from changes in growth rates. This assumption of “no policy change” is a standard one in the construction of fan charts. Governments will, however, generally be in a position to adjust fiscal policy towards meeting a specific fiscal target, such as reaching a deficit position of less than 3 percent of GDP in the medium-term. A second set of fan charts is included which indicates how the probabilistic range of fiscal outcomes could be affected by a tightening of fiscal policy in 2013-2015.

Suggested Citation

  • Cronin, David & Dowd, Kevin, 2011. "Fiscal fan charts - A tool for assessing member states’ (likely?) compliance with EU fiscal rules," Research Technical Papers 15/RT/11, Central Bank of Ireland.
    • Handle: RePEc:cbi:wpaper:15/rt/11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francesco Giavazzi & Marco Pagano, 1990. "Can Severe Fiscal Contractions Be Expansionary? Tales of Two Small European Countries," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1990, Volume 5, pages 75-122, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Mr. E. H. Gardner & Mr. Julian Di Giovanni, 2008. "A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 2008/097, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Wallis, Kenneth F., 2004. "An Assessment of Bank of England and National Institute Inflation Forecast Uncertainties," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 189, pages 64-71, July.
    4. Oya Celasun & Geoffrey N. Keim, 2010. "The Us Federal Debt Outlook: Reading the Tea Leaves," IMF Working Papers 2010/062, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Jaime Guajardo, 2011. "Expansionary Austerity New International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2011/158, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Yim, Ha-Neul & Riddell, Jordan R. & Wheeler, Andrew P., 2020. "Is the recent increase in national homicide abnormal? Testing the application of fan charts in monitoring national homicide trends over time," Journal of Criminal Justice, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    2. Yim, Ha-Neul & Riddell, Jordan R. & Wheeler, Andrew Palmer, 2019. "Is the recent increase in national homicide abnormal? Testing the application of fan charts in monitoring national homicide trends over time," SocArXiv 7g32n, Center for Open Science.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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