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The Impact of Heterogeneous Signals on Stock Price Predictability in a Strategic Trade Model

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  • Winter, Christoph

    () (University of Basel)

Abstract

Generalizing the idea that price momentum can be explained by dierent levels of uncertainty inherent in the information structure, we implement signal-specic dierences in uncertainty in a Kyle type model of strategic trading. We derive the equilibrium in a single-auction setting as well as a two-trading-period model. We show that the two-period equilibrium supports price patterns like momentum and reversal/under- and over-reaction without relying on any additional behavioral assumptions. Furthermore, the two-period setting can be extended to a multiple- trading-period equilibrium model with very similar equilibrium conditions to the original sequential auction equilibrium proposed by Kyle (1985), while preserving the price pattern of the two-period model.

Suggested Citation

  • Winter, Christoph, 2018. "The Impact of Heterogeneous Signals on Stock Price Predictability in a Strategic Trade Model," Working papers 2018/22, Faculty of Business and Economics - University of Basel.
  • Handle: RePEc:bsl:wpaper:2018/22
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    Keywords

    Market structure; asset pricing; market efficiency; asymmetric information; equilibrium;

    JEL classification:

    • D43 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Oligopoly and Other Forms of Market Imperfection
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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