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Optimally Rational Expectations and Macroeconomics

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  • David Demery
  • Nigel Duck

Abstract

This paper provides an alternative to the theory of rational expectations (RE). Its central idea is that the information set on which agents will choose to condition their expectations will not, in general, include all the available information. Our alternative has many of the attractive features of RE; it emerges from an explicit choice-theoretic framework; it has wide applicability; and it can in principle explain the failure of models incorporating RE to account for the dynamics of many macroeconomic relationships.

Suggested Citation

  • David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2002. "Optimally Rational Expectations and Macroeconomics," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 02/533, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.
    • Handle: RePEc:bri:uobdis:02/533
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    File URL: http://www.bristol.ac.uk/efm/media/workingpapers/working_papers/pdffiles/dp02533.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jun.
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    4. Mankiw, N Gregory, 2001. "The Inexorable and Mysterious Tradeoff between Inflation and Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 111(471), pages 45-61, May.
    5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2002. "Sticky Information versus Sticky Prices: A Proposal to Replace the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1295-1328.
    6. David Demery & Nigel W. Duck, 2000. "Incomplete information and the time series behaviour of consumption," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 15(4), pages 355-366.
    7. John Conlisk, 1996. "Why Bounded Rationality?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 669-700, June.
    8. Akerlof, George A & Yellen, Janet L, 1985. "Can Small Deviations from Rationality Make Significant Differences to Economic Equilibria?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(4), pages 708-720, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. David Demery & Nigel Duck, 2003. "Inflation Dynamics and Inflation Regimes," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 03/549, School of Economics, University of Bristol, UK.

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    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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