Persistence and Mobility in International TradeName: James Proudman
This paper examines changing patterns of specialisation in international trade in manufactured goods in the United Kingdom and Germany between 1970 and 1993. The analysis is motivated by a simple theoretical model of endogenous economic growth, in which patterns of comparative advantage are determined by the history of technological change and help determine current rates of innovation. Learning by doing that is specific to a manufacturing sector provides a reason why initial patterns of comparative advantage and international specialisation will persist over time. In contrast, spillovers of technological knowledge between economies are a source of mobility in patterns of international specialisation. We present an empirical measure of the degree of specialisation in exports of a given sector termed Revealed Comparative Advantage. The distribution of this measure across sectors provides information on international specialisation at a point in time. Analysing how the distribution evolves over time yields insights into changes in international specialisation. By explicitly modelling the dynamics of Revealed Comparative Advantage across sectors and over time, the degree of persistence and mobility in actual patterns of international trade is evaluated. The degree of mobility over the sample period is found to be surprisingly high, with the pattern of international specialisation in the United Kingdom more mobile than that in Germany.
|Date of creation:||Jun 1997|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Bank of England, Threadneedle Street, London, EC2R 8AH|
Phone: +44 (0)171 601 4030
Fax: +44 (0)171 601 5196
Web page: http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Danny Quah, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0280, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Convergence Empirics across Economies with (Some) Capital Mobility," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 95-124, March.
- Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-24, September.
- Danny Quah, 1992.
"Empirical Cross-Section Dynamics in Economic Growth,"
FMG Discussion Papers
dp154, Financial Markets Group.
- Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
- Danny Quah, 1992. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 75, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Redding, Stephen, 1999.
"Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade,"
Oxford Economic Papers,
Oxford University Press, vol. 51(1), pages 15-39, January.
- Redding, S., 1997. "Dynamic Comparative Advantage and the Welfare Effects of Trade," Economics Papers 140, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Quah, Danny, 1996.
"Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1355, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Quah, Danny T, 1996. "Twin Peaks: Growth and Convergence in Models of Distribution Dynamics," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1045-55, July.
- Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley & Samuelson, Paul A, 1977.
"Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 67(5), pages 823-39, December.
- R. Dornbusch & S. Fischer & P. A. Samuelson, 1976. "Comparative Advantage, Trade and Payments in a Ricardian Model With a Continuum of Goods," Working papers 178, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996.
"Productivity across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 135-46, February.
- Bernard, A.B. & Jones, C.I., 1993. "Productivity Across Industries and Countries: Time Series Theory and Evidence," Working papers 93-17, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Krugman, Paul, 1987. "The narrow moving band, the Dutch disease, and the competitive consequences of Mrs. Thatcher : Notes on trade in the presence of dynamic scale economies," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1-2), pages 41-55, October.
- Bernard, Andrew B & Jones, Charles I, 1996. "Comparing Apples to Oranges: Productivity Convergence and Measurement across Industries and Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1216-38, December.
- Quah, Danny, 1995.
"Aggregate and Regional Disaggregate Fluctuations,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1236, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-23, November.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:64. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Digital Media Team)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.