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Revealing economic facts: LLMs know more than they say

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Buckmann

    (Bank of England)

  • Quynh Anh Nguyen

    (Bank of England)

  • Ed Hill

    (Bank of England)

Abstract

We investigate whether hidden states of large language models (LLMs) can be used to estimate and impute economic and financial statistics. Focusing on county-level (eg unemployment) and firm-level (eg total assets) variables, we show that a linear regression trained on the hidden states of open-source LLMs outperforms the models' own text outputs. This indicates that internal representations encode richer economic information than is revealed directly in generated responses. A learning curve analysis shows that, in many cases, only a few dozen labelled examples suffice for training. We further propose a transfer learning method that improves estimation accuracy without requiring any labelled data for the target variable. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of hidden states in data imputation and super-resolution tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Buckmann & Quynh Anh Nguyen & Ed Hill, 2025. "Revealing economic facts: LLMs know more than they say," Bank of England Staff Working Paper series 1150, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:023272
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    File URL: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2025/revealing-economic-facts-llms-know-more-than-they-say.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • C45 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Neural Networks and Related Topics
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models

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