IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2505.08662.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Revealing economic facts: LLMs know more than they say

Author

Listed:
  • Marcus Buckmann
  • Quynh Anh Nguyen
  • Edward Hill

Abstract

We investigate whether the hidden states of large language models (LLMs) can be used to estimate and impute economic and financial statistics. Focusing on county-level (e.g. unemployment) and firm-level (e.g. total assets) variables, we show that a simple linear model trained on the hidden states of open-source LLMs outperforms the models' text outputs. This suggests that hidden states capture richer economic information than the responses of the LLMs reveal directly. A learning curve analysis indicates that only a few dozen labelled examples are sufficient for training. We also propose a transfer learning method that improves estimation accuracy without requiring any labelled data for the target variable. Finally, we demonstrate the practical utility of hidden-state representations in super-resolution and data imputation tasks.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcus Buckmann & Quynh Anh Nguyen & Edward Hill, 2025. "Revealing economic facts: LLMs know more than they say," Papers 2505.08662, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.08662
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2505.08662
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nikos Tzavidis & Li‐Chun Zhang & Angela Luna & Timo Schmid & Natalia Rojas‐Perilla, 2018. "From start to finish: a framework for the production of small area official statistics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(4), pages 927-979, October.
    2. Emily Aiken & Suzanne Bellue & Dean Karlan & Chris Udry & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2022. "Machine learning and phone data can improve targeting of humanitarian aid," Nature, Nature, vol. 603(7903), pages 864-870, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Corral, Paul & Henderson, Heath & Segovia, Sandra, 2025. "Poverty mapping in the age of machine learning," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 172(C).
    2. Corral Rodas,Paul Andres & Henderson,Heath Linn & Segovia Juarez,Sandra Carolina, 2023. "Poverty Mapping in the Age of Machine Learning," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10429, The World Bank.
    3. Patrick Krennmair & Timo Schmid, 2022. "Flexible domain prediction using mixed effects random forests," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 71(5), pages 1865-1894, November.
    4. Masaki,Takaaki & Newhouse,David Locke & Silwal,Ani Rudra & Bedada,Adane & Engstrom,Ryan, 2020. "Small Area Estimation of Non-Monetary Poverty with Geospatial Data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9383, The World Bank.
    5. Corral Rodas,Paul Andres & Kastelic,Kristen Himelein & Mcgee,Kevin Robert & Molina,Isabel, 2021. "A Map of the Poor or a Poor Map ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9620, The World Bank.
    6. Benedetti, Ilaria & Crescenzi, Federico, 2023. "The role of income poverty and inequality indicators at regional level: An evaluation for Italy and Germany," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).
    7. Kibrom A Abay & Nishant Yonzan & Sikandra Kurdi & Kibrom Tafere, 2023. "Revisiting Poverty Trends and the Role of Social Protection Systems in Africa during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 32(Supplemen), pages 44-68.
    8. Chowdhury, Shyamal & Hasan, Syed & Sharma, Uttam, 2024. "The Role of Trainee Selection in the Effectiveness of Vocational Training: Evidence from a Randomized Controlled Trial in Nepal," IZA Discussion Papers 16705, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    9. Aysegül Kayaoglu & Ghassan Baliki & Tilman Brück & Melodie Al Daccache & Dorothee Weiffen, 2023. "How to conduct impact evaluations in humanitarian and conflict settings," HiCN Working Papers 387, Households in Conflict Network.
    10. Oeindrila Dube & Joshua Blumenstock & Michael Callen, 2022. "Measuring Religion from Behavior: Climate Shocks and Religious Adherence in Afghanistan," NBER Working Papers 30694, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Baez, Javier E. & Kshirsagar, Varun & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2024. "Drought-sensitive targeting and child growth faltering in Southern Africa," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    12. Flores Lanza, Micaela & Leonard, Alycia & Hirmer, Stephanie, 2024. "Geospatial and socioeconomic prediction of value-driven clean cooking uptake," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    13. Natascha Hainbach & Christoph Halbmeier & Timo Schmid & Carsten Schröder, 2019. "A Practical Guide for the Computation of Domain-Level Estimates with the Socio-Economic Panel (and Other Household Surveys)," SOEPpapers on Multidisciplinary Panel Data Research 1055, DIW Berlin, The German Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP).
    14. Dunstan Matekenya & Francis Mulangu & David Newhouse, 2025. "Malnourished but Not Destitute: The Spatial Interplay Between Nutrition and Poverty in Madagascar," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(2), pages 554-569, March.
    15. Paolo Verme, 2025. "Predicting Poverty," Papers 2505.05958, arXiv.org.
    16. Yuko Okamura & Tim Ohlenburg & Emil Tesliuc, 2024. "Scaling Up Social Assistance Where Data is Scarce - Opportunities and Limits of Novel Data and AI," World Bank Publications - Reports 41553, The World Bank Group.
    17. Isabella S. Smythe & Joshua E. Blumenstock, 2022. "Geographic microtargeting of social assistance with high-resolution poverty maps," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 119(32), pages 2120025119-, August.
    18. Gianni Betti & Federico Crescenzi & Vasco Molini & Lorenzo Mori, 2024. "Estimation of Multidimensional Poverty in Morocco: A Small Area Estimation Approach Using Meteorological and Socio-economic Covariates," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 175(2), pages 545-575, November.
    19. Barriga Cabanillas, Oscar & Bossuroy, Thomas & Corral Rodas, Paul Andres & Rodriguez Castelan, Carlos & Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2024. "Sustaining Poverty Gains: A Vulnerability Map to Guide Social Policy," IZA Discussion Papers 17193, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    20. Paolo Verme, 2023. "Predicting Poverty with Missing Incomes," Working Papers 642, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.08662. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.