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Economic Structure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Policy Implications for Bangladesh


  • Bernhard G. Gunter

    () (American University and Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC))

  • Faisal Ahmed

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))

  • A. F. M. Ataur Rahman

    (North South University)

  • Jesmin Rahman

    (International Monetary Fund (IMF))


This paper begins with examining Bangladesh’s economic structural transformation during 1980-2010, which is compared and contrasted with the transformation of India and Pakistan. It then calculates and compares the three countries’ macroeconomic volatility and uncertainty for the observation period (1980-2010), using unbiased volatility and uncertainty measures. It also reviews the evolution of Bangladesh’s macroeconomic uncertainty for each decade (i.e., the 1980s, 1990s and the 2000s). It shows, for example, that Bangladesh’s GDP volatility and uncertainty have been increasing over time. Reflecting on the fact that macroeconomic uncertainty has a negative impact on investment and growth, the paper derives various policy implications for Bangladesh, highlighting the importance of economic diversification, countercyclical monetary policy, smoothing external factors, and building up reserves and buffers.

Suggested Citation

  • Bernhard G. Gunter & Faisal Ahmed & A. F. M. Ataur Rahman & Jesmin Rahman, 2014. "Economic Structure and Macroeconomic Uncertainty: Policy Implications for Bangladesh," Bangladesh Development Research Working Paper Series (BDRWPS) BDRWPS No. 20, Bangladesh Development Research Center (BDRC).
  • Handle: RePEc:bnr:wpaper:20

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Syrquin, M. & Chenery, H.B., 1989. "Patterns Of Development, 1950 To 1983," World Bank - Discussion Papers 41, World Bank.
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    structural change; volatility; uncertainty; Bangladesh; India; Pakistan;

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