IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bkr/wpaper/wps138.html

Regional finance and fiscal regulation: estimating fiscal multiplier

Author

Listed:
  • Alexander Myasnikov

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Vadim Tarasov

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Anna Averyanova

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

  • Maxim Tkachenko

    (Bank of Russia, Russian Federation)

Abstract

This paper estimates the response of gross regional product (GRP) in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation1 (multipliers) to fiscal flow (revenue and expenditure) shocks both at the level of individual regions and across all levels of government budget, including federal and regional budgets, as well as extra-budgetary funds. The authors have compiled a database of fiscal flows of all levels for the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, incorporating proxy variables to capture all withdrawals and injections of financial resources from/into regional economies by government agencies. The study also provides an assessment of the impact of fiscal policy on regional economies in the regions grouped into clusters by the level of economic development and by the type of expenditure (social or economic expenditures). The main finding of the study is the assessment of the combined impact of fiscal revenue and expenditure multipliers across the constituent entities of the Russian Federation. This assessment has revealed an overall negative effect on the economy from expanded fiscal flow (revenue and expenditure) shocks. The negative effect of withdrawing funds from the regional economy exceeds the positive effect of injecting funds into it. The GRP response is at its maximum at the time of both revenue and expenditure shocks. A relatively positive impact on the economy is noted from the redistribution of income from regions with higher levels of economic development to those with lower levels. The accumulated effect on economic activity from increased budget expenditure in less developed regions is higher compared to more developed regions. Injecting budgetary funds into the economies of less developed regions has a greater multiplier effect than if those funds were returned to the economies of more developed regions. During periods of economic stimulus and budget deficits, regions with lower levels of economic development experience a relatively greater impact from fiscal policy on economic activity. On the contrary, during periods of fiscal consolidation and budget surpluses, these regions incur relatively higher GRP losses compared to those with higher levels of economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Alexander Myasnikov & Vadim Tarasov & Anna Averyanova & Maxim Tkachenko, 2024. "Regional finance and fiscal regulation: estimating fiscal multiplier," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series wps138, Bank of Russia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps138
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.cbr.ru/StaticHtml/File/172314/wp_138.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Günter Coenen & Juha Kilponen & Mathias Trabandt, 2010. "When does fiscal stimulus work?," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 10, pages 6-10.
    2. Auerbach, Alan J. & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Murphy, Daniel, 2021. "Inequality, fiscal policy and COVID19 restrictions in a demand-determined economy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    3. Abiad (ADB), Abdul & Furceri (IMF and University of Palermo), Davide & Topalova (IMF), Petia, 2016. "The macroeconomic effects of public investment: Evidence from advanced economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-240.
    4. Ray Barrell & Dawn Holland & Ian Hurst, 2012. "Fiscal Consolidation: Part 2. Fiscal Multipliers and Fiscal Consolidations," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 933, OECD Publishing.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2013. "Corrigendum: Measuring the Output Responses to Fiscal Policy," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(3), pages 320-322, August.
    6. Nicoletta Batini & Mr. Luc Eyraud & Miss Anke Weber, 2014. "A Simple Method to Compute Fiscal Multipliers," IMF Working Papers 2014/093, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cyrille Lenoël & Corrado Macchiarelli & Garry Young, 2022. "Greece 2010-18: What could we have done differently?," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 172, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    2. Gupta, Mahima & Dubey, Amlendu, 2025. "Structural characteristics and non-linear fiscal multipliers," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 49(1).
    3. Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S. & Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. "Government spending effects in low-income countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 201-219.
    4. Tannous Kass-Hanna & Julien Reynaud & Chris Walker, 2023. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes: The Case of Bolivia," IMF Working Papers 2023/240, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Fernández Romero, Daniel, 2025. "The fiscal multiplier in presence of unconventional monetary policy: Evidence for 17 OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Alexis Habiyaremye & Olebogeng Molewa & Pelontle Lekomanyane, 2022. "Estimating Employment Gains of the Proposed Infrastructure Stimulus Plan in Post-Covid-19 South Africa," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 540-567, February.
    7. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Vlasov, S. & Deryugina, E., 2018. "Fiscal Multipliers in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 104-119.
    9. Chun-Hung Kuo & Hiroaki Miyamoto, 2023. "Public investment and labor market flexibility," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 43(2), pages 1122-1132.
    10. Sergey Vlasov, 2018. "Impact of the fiscal manoeuvre on GDP growth: estimation of short-term effects using fiscal multipliers," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note17, Bank of Russia.
    11. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2019. "The Fiscal consequences of deflation: Evidence from the Golden Age of Globalization," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 129-147.
    12. Mr. Jiro Honda & Hiroaki Miyamoto & Mina Taniguchi, 2020. "Exploring the Output Effect of Fiscal Policy Shocks in Low Income Countries," IMF Working Papers 2020/012, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Amarachukwu Anthony ANYANWU, 2021. "Debt-financed public investment in developing countries: Does the efficiency of public investment matter?," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(1(626), S), pages 259-272, Spring.
    14. Falilou Fall & Debra Bloch & Jean-Marc Fournier & Peter Hoeller, 2015. "Prudent debt targets and fiscal frameworks," OECD Economic Policy Papers 15, OECD Publishing.
    15. Theodore Chatziapostolou & Nikolina Kosteletou, 2023. "A VAR model for Fiscal Multipliers and the Future of Fiscal Policy in European Monetary Union," Bulletin of Applied Economics, Risk Market Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 1-15.
    16. João Tovar Jalles & Mr. Paulo A Medas, 2022. "Economic Growth After Debt Surges," IMF Working Papers 2022/159, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Brandao-Marques, Luis & Casiraghi, Marco & Gelos, Gaston & Harrison, Olamide & Kamber, Gunes, 2024. "Is high debt Constraining monetary policy? evidence from inflation expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Felix Reichling & Charles Whalen, 2015. "The Fiscal Multiplier and Economic Policy Analysis in the United States: Working Paper 2015-02," Working Papers 49925, Congressional Budget Office.
    19. Yannis Psycharis & Anastasia Panori & Dimitrios Athanasopoulos, 2022. "Public Investment and Regional Resilience: Empirical Evidence from the Greek Regions," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 113(1), pages 57-79, February.
    20. Jalles, João Tovar & Medas, Paulo, 2024. "The economic aftermath of surges in public and private debt: Initial conditions and channels," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(3).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C54 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Quantitative Policy Modeling
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H61 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Budget; Budget Systems
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bkr:wpaper:wps138. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: BoR Research The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask BoR Research to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cbrgvru.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.