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Is there excess comovement of bond yields between countries?

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  • Gregory D. Sutton

Abstract

This paper examines the issues of excess volatility and excess comovement of interest rates among global bond markets. The base model of interest rate behaviour is the expectations theory of the term structure. The empirical evidence presented in the paper indicates that ten-year government bond yields in five major markets - the United States, Japan, Germany, the United Kingdom and Canada - have in the past displayed both excess volatility and excess comovement relative to the base model. This suggests that term premia at the long end of the term structure are both time-varying and positively correlated across markets.

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  • Gregory D. Sutton, 1997. "Is there excess comovement of bond yields between countries?," BIS Working Papers 44, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:44
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Campbell, John Y, 1991. "A Variance Decomposition for Stock Returns," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 101(405), pages 157-179, March.
    2. Shiller, Robert J, 1989. " Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-729, July.
    3. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1984. "A Simple Account of the Behavior of Long-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 44-48, May.
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    6. Campbell, John Y & Shiller, Robert J, 1987. "Cointegration and Tests of Present Value Models," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(5), pages 1062-1088, October.
    7. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(3), pages 815-828.
    8. Bernard, Henri & Gerlach, Stefan, 1998. "Does the Term Structure Predict Recessions? The International Evidence," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(3), pages 195-215, July.
    9. Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell & Kermit L. Schoenholtz, 1983. "Forward Rates and Future Policy: Interpreting the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 14(1), pages 173-224.
    10. Shiller, Robert J, 1979. "The Volatility of Long-Term Interest Rates and Expectations Models of the Term Structure," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1190-1219, December.
    11. Hardouvelis, Gikas A., 1994. "The term structure spread and future changes in long and short rates in the G7 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 255-283, April.
    12. Robert J. Shiller, 1989. "Comovements in Stock Prices and Comovements in Dividends," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 719-729, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Federico J. Diez & Ignacio Presno, 2013. "Domestic and foreign announcements on unconventional monetary policy and exchange rates," Public Policy Brief, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    2. Siklos, Pierre L, 2000. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia versus the US," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, February.
    3. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 2002. "Benchmark Yield Undershooting in the E.M.U," Discussion Paper Series 26207, Hamburg Institute of International Economics.
    4. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 2002. "Benchmark yield undershooting in the E.M.U," HWWA Discussion Papers 191, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    5. Gregory D. Sutton, 1998. "Spread overreaction in international bond markets," BIS Working Papers 55, Bank for International Settlements.

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