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The tail wags the dog: time-varying information shares in the Bund market

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  • Christian Upper
  • Thomas Werner

Abstract

The paper analyses the information content of trades in Bund futures and German government bonds before and during the 1998 financial market turbulences and tests whether the contributions to price discovery of the two market segments were constant over time. The results suggest that, under the normal market conditions prevailing in the first half of the year, between 19% and 33% of the variation in the efficient price was due to trading in the spot market. In the aftermath of the recapitalisation of LTCM, by contrast, the bond market's share in price discovery dropped to zero, with information becoming incorporated into prices only in the futures market. This decline can be traced to an unusually high proportion of large client trades that were executed against dealer inventory, which suggests that they were primarily motivated by liquidity rather than by information. On the methodological side, the paper computes information shares and factor weights based on the Gonzalo-Granger decomposition in markets with different trading frequencies. In addition, the paper captures variations over time by using a sequence of break point tests.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Upper & Thomas Werner, 2007. "The tail wags the dog: time-varying information shares in the Bund market," BIS Working Papers 224, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:224
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Seppi, Duane J, 1990. "Equilibrium Block Trading and Asymmetric Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(1), pages 73-94, March.
    2. Sofianos, George & Werner, Ingrid M., 2000. "The trades of NYSE floor brokers," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(2), pages 139-176, May.
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    4. Bessembinder, Hendrik & Venkataraman, Kumar, 2004. "Does an electronic stock exchange need an upstairs market?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 3-36, July.
    5. Werner, Ingrid M., 2003. "NYSE order flow, spreads, and information," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 309-335, May.
    6. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    7. Martens, Martin, 1998. "Price discovery in high and low volatility periods: open outcry versus electronic trading," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 8(3-4), pages 243-260, December.
    8. Blume, Marshall E & Goldstein, Michael A, 1997. "Quotes, Order Flow, and Price Discovery," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 221-244, March.
    9. Scalia, Antonio, 1998. "Information transmission and causality in the Italian Treasury bond market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 361-384, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Information shares; bond futures; upstairs markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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