IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bfr/banfra/1061.html

The Missing Surprise: Transmission Protection in Central Bank Announcements

Author

Listed:
  • Christoph Grosse Steffen
  • Stéphane Lhuissier
  • Daniel J. Lewis

Abstract

Central bank communications frequently contain information about financial-market backstops that affect monetary policy transmission. We identify these transmission protection surprises in the euro area, alongside policy stance and central bank information surprises, by exploiting heteroskedasticity in minute-by-minute asset price movements. Unlike standard factor models, our approach allows active policy dimensions and their impacts to vary across events. Event-specific decompositions quantify the narrative record and reveal substantial heterogeneity of effects across announcements. We show that transmission protection is a distinct dimension of central bank announcements, with financial-market effects separate from both policy stance and information shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Christoph Grosse Steffen & Stéphane Lhuissier & Daniel J. Lewis, 2026. "The Missing Surprise: Transmission Protection in Central Bank Announcements," Working papers 1061, Banque de France.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:1061
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.banque-france.fr/system/files/2026-08/WP1061.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Altavilla, Carlo & Brugnolini, Luca & Gürkaynak, Refet S. & Motto, Roberto & Ragusa, Giuseppe, 2019. "Measuring euro area monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 162-179.
    2. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2002. "Determining the Number of Factors in Approximate Factor Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(1), pages 191-221, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Arne Gieseck, 2025. "The effects of macro uncertainty shocks in the euro area: a FAVAR approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 68(6), pages 2829-2872, June.
    2. Geiger, Martin & Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2023. "Monetary policy shocks and consumer expectations in the euro area," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    3. Corsetti, Giancarlo & Duarte, Joao B. & Mann, Samuel, 2020. "One Money, Many Markets: Monetary Transmission and Housing Financing in the Euro Area," CEPR Discussion Papers 14968, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    4. Laumer, Sebastian & Violaris, Andreas-Entony, 2024. "Unconventional monetary policy and policy foresight," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    5. Stéphane Lhuissier & Benoit Nguyen, 2021. "The Dynamic Effects of the ECB s Asset Purchases: a Survey-Based Identification," Working papers 806, Banque de France.
    6. Valentin Jouvanceau & Ieva Mikaliunaite, 2020. "Euro Area Monetary Communications: Excess Sensitivity and Perception Shocks," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 79, Bank of Lithuania.
    7. Luisa Corrado & Daniela Fantozzi, 2021. "Micro level data for macro models: the distributional effects of monetary policy," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 529, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    8. Matteo Barigozzi & Claudio Lissona & Lorenzo Tonni, 2024. "Large datasets for the Euro Area and its member countries and the dynamic effects of the common monetary policy," Papers 2410.05082, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2026.
    9. Gründler, Daniel & Scharler, Johann, 2025. "Bank lending standards and monetary transmission in the euro area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 254(C).
    10. Armando Marozzi, 2021. "The ECB and the Cost of Independence. Unearthing a New Doom-Loop in the European Monetary Union," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21152, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Matthieu Bussière & Thaïs Masseï & Arthur Saint-Guilhem, 2026. "Is Monetary Policy Transmission Heterogeneous across Euro Area Countries and over Time? A Reassessment," Working papers 1062, Banque de France.
    12. Luca Brugnolini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2022. "Euro Area Deflationary Pressure Index," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 60(3), pages 883-900, October.
    13. Hülsewig, Oliver & Rottmann, Horst, 2023. "Unemployment in the euro area and unconventional monetary policy surprises," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 226(C).
    14. Hauzenberger, Niko & Huber, Florian & Klieber, Karin & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2025. "Bayesian neural networks for macroeconomic analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 249(PC).
    15. Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Bruha, 2016. "Nowcasting the Czech Trade Balance," Working Papers 2016/11, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    16. Etienne Vaccaro-Grange, 2025. "Quantitative easing, tightening, and the term premium channel in the Euro Area," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3089-3125, December.
    17. Nagayasu, Jun, 2010. "Macroeconomic interdependence in East Asia," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 219-227, December.
    18. Chang, Jinyuan & Chen, Song Xi & Chen, Xiaohong, 2015. "High dimensional generalized empirical likelihood for moment restrictions with dependent data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 185(1), pages 283-304.
    19. Mariam Camarero & Juan Sapena & Cecilio Tamarit, 2020. "Modelling Time-Varying Parameters in Panel Data State-Space Frameworks: An Application to the Feldstein–Horioka Puzzle," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 87-114, June.
    20. Bonhomme, Stphane & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2009. "Consistent noisy independent component analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 12-25, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bfr:banfra:1061. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael brassart (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdfgvfr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.