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Why Does the Fed Move Markets so Much? A Model of Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Aversion

Author

Listed:
  • Carolin E. Pflueger

    (University of Chicago - Harris School of Public Policy; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER))

  • Gianluca Rinaldi

    (Harvard University, Department of Economics)

Abstract

We build a new model integrating a work-horse New Keynesian model with investor risk aversion that moves with the business cycle. We show that the same habit preferences that explain the equity volatility puzzle in quarterly data also naturally explain the large high-frequency stock response to Federal Funds rate surprises. In the model, a surprise increase in the short-term interest rate lowers output and consumption relative to habit, thereby raising risk aversion and amplifying the fall in stocks. The model explains the positive correlation between changes in breakeven inflation and stock returns around monetary policy announcements with long-term inflation news.

Suggested Citation

  • Carolin E. Pflueger & Gianluca Rinaldi, 2020. "Why Does the Fed Move Markets so Much? A Model of Monetary Policy and Time-Varying Risk Aversion," Working Papers 2020-138, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2020-138
    as

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    File URL: https://repec.bfi.uchicago.edu/RePEc/pdfs/BFI_WP_2020138.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "High-Frequency Identification of Monetary Non-Neutrality: The Information Effect," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 133(3), pages 1283-1330.
    2. John Y. Campbell & Carolin Pflueger & Luis M. Viceira, 2020. "Macroeconomic Drivers of Bond and Equity Risks," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(8), pages 3148-3185.
    3. Frank Smets & Rafael Wouters, 2007. "Shocks and Frictions in US Business Cycles: A Bayesian DSGE Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(3), pages 586-606, June.
    4. Hanson, Samuel G. & Stein, Jeremy C., 2015. "Monetary policy and long-term real rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(3), pages 429-448.
    5. Greenwood, Jeremy & Hercowitz, Zvi & Huffman, Gregory W, 1988. "Investment, Capacity Utilization, and the Real Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(3), pages 402-417, June.
    6. Wachter, Jessica A., 2005. "Solving models with external habit," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 210-226, December.
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