IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/362.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

El Impacto Del Tratado De Libre Comercio Con Estados Unidos (Tlc) En La Balanza De Pagos Hasta 2010

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Toro
  • Gloria Alonso
  • Pilar Esguerra
  • Daira garrido
  • Ana María Iregui
  • Enrique Montes
  • Juan Mauricio Ramírez

Abstract

Este trabajo evalúa el posible impacto del Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos sobre los principales rubros de la balanza de pagos, para el período 2007 - 2010. Para la estimación de los efectos del TLC sobre el comercio de bienes se utilizó un Modelo Multisectorial de Equilibrio General. Adicionalmente, se usaron otros métodos de proyección para las cuentas de servicios y para la inversión extranjera directa (IED). Los resultados muestran que el TLC generaría un aumento del comercio total de Colombia de más de tres puntos del PIB, y un aumento de la IED superior a US$2.300 millones. Puesto que estas proyecciones se circunscriben a un horizonte de tiempo específico, la evaluación de dicho impacto es parcial y posiblemente subestima el efecto total del acuerdo. Por una parte, no se tiene en cuenta el posible surgimiento de nuevas actividades de exportación o importación. Por otro lado, el cálculo de los flujos de IED inducidos por la firma del tratado son conservadores de acuerdo a la experiencia de otros países que han firmado tratados comerciales similares.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Toro & Gloria Alonso & Pilar Esguerra & Daira garrido & Ana María Iregui & Enrique Montes & Juan Mauricio Ramírez, 2006. "El Impacto Del Tratado De Libre Comercio Con Estados Unidos (Tlc) En La Balanza De Pagos Hasta 2010," Borradores de Economia 362, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:362
    DOI: 10.32468/be.362
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.362
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.362?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José Anson & Olivier Cadot & Antoni Estevadeordal & Jaime de Melo & Akiko Suwa‐Eisenmann & Bolormaa Tumurchudur, 2005. "Rules of Origin in North–South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 501-517, August.
    2. repec:idb:brikps:8602 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Maloney, William & Lederman, Daniel & Servén, Luis, 2011. "Lessons from NAFTA: For Latin America and the Caribbean," IDB Publications (Books), Inter-American Development Bank, number 345.
    4. repec:idb:brikps:8337 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Ramirez, Miguel D., 2003. "Mexico under NAFTA: a critical assessment," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 863-892.
    6. Nicita, Alessandro, 2004. "Who benefited from trade liberalization in Mexico? Measuring the effects on household welfare," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3265, The World Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. E.A. Haddad & J. Bonet & G.J.D. Hewings & F.S. Perobelli, 2009. "Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 699-732, November.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Julio Huato, 2005. "Maquiladoras and Standard of Living in Mexico Before and After NAFTA," Development and Comp Systems 0508006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Denis Medvedev, 2010. "Preferential trade agreements and their role in world trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(2), pages 199-222, June.
    3. Kym Anderson, 2005. "On the Virtues of Multilateral Trade Negotiations," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 81(255), pages 414-438, December.
    4. Jiandong Ju & Kala Krishna, 2005. "Firm behaviour and market access in a Free Trade Area with rules of origin," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(1), pages 290-308, February.
    5. Andrés Rodríguez-Clare, 2005. "Innovation and Technology Adoption in Central America," Research Department Publications 4395, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    6. Dinkelman, Taryn & Ranchhod, Vimal, 2012. "Evidence on the impact of minimum wage laws in an informal sector: Domestic workers in South Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 27-45.
    7. Cipollina, Maria & Salvatici, Luca, 2007. "EU and developing countries: an analysis of preferential margins on agricultural trade flows," Working Papers 7219, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
    8. Felbermayr, Gabriel & Teti, Feodora & Yalcin, Erdal, 2019. "Rules of origin and the profitability of trade deflection," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Honggue Lee, 2013. "The Effects of Preferential Rules of Origin on Trade Flows," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 29, pages 379-403.
    10. Nicita, Alessandro, 2005. "Multilateral trade liberalization and Mexican households : the effect of the Doha development agenda," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3707, The World Bank.
    11. Cadot, Olivier & Carrère, Céline & de Melo, Jaime & Tumurchudur, Bolormaa, 2005. "Product Specific Rules of Origin in EU and US Preferential Trading Agreements: An Assessment," CEPR Discussion Papers 4998, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Olivier Cadot & Jaime de Melo, 2015. "Why OECD Countries Should Reform Rules of Origin," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Developing Countries in the World Economy, chapter 16, pages 381-409, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    13. Sytsma, Tobias, 2019. "Rules of Origin Liberalization with Multi-Product Firms: Theory and Evidence from Bangladeshi Apparel Exporters," MPRA Paper 95956, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Kiyoyasu Tanaka, 2021. "The European Union's reform in rules of origin and international trade: Evidence from Cambodia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(10), pages 3025-3050, October.
    15. Paula Auerbach & María Eugenia Genoni & Carmen Pagés-Serra, 2005. "Social Security Coverage and the Labor Market in Developing Countries," Research Department Publications 4421, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    16. George A. Dyer & Alan Hernández-Solano & Pablo Meza-Pale & Héctor Robles-Berlanga & Antonio Yúnez-Naude, 2018. "Mexican agriculture and policy under NAFTA," Serie documentos de trabajo del Centro de Estudios Económicos 2018-04, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos.
    17. Earl L. Grinols & Peri Silva, 2008. "Industrial targeting in free trade areas with policy independence," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(3), pages 796-816, August.
    18. Vergez, Antonin, 2007. "Agricultural Price Seasonality and Market Failure: Examining the Net Seller Household and the Net Benefit Ratio Definition," 106th Seminar, October 25-27, 2007, Montpellier, France 7911, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    19. Nicita, Alessandro, 2006. "Export led growth, pro-poor or not? Evidence from Madagascar's textile and apparel industry," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3841, The World Bank.
    20. Paula Auerbach & María Eugenia Genoni & Carmen Pagés-Serra, 2005. "Cobertura del sistema de seguridad social y el mercado laboral en países en desarrollo," Research Department Publications 4422, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:362. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.