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El Impacto Del Tratado Del Libre Comercio Con Estados Unidos (Tlc) En La Balanza De Pagos Hasta 2010

Author

Listed:
  • Jorge Toro
  • Gloria Alonso
  • Pilar Esguerra
  • Daira Garrido

Abstract

Este trabajo eval�a el posible impacto del Tratado de Libre Comercio entre Colombia y Estados Unidos sobre los principales rubros de la balanza de pagos, para el per�odo 2007 - 2010. Para la estimaci�n de los efectos del TLC sobre el comercio de bienes se utiliz� un Modelo Multisectorial de Equilibrio General. Adicionalmente, se usaron otros m�todos de proyecci�n para las cuentas de servicios y para la inversi�n extranjera directa (IED). Los resultados muestran que el TLC generar�a un aumento del comercio total de Colombia de m�s de tres puntos del PIB, y un aumento de la IED superior a US$2.300 millones. Puesto que estas proyecciones se circunscriben a un horizonte de tiempo espec�fico, la evaluaci�n de dicho impacto es parcial y posiblemente subestima el efecto total del acuerdo. Por una parte, no se tiene en cuenta el posible surgimiento de nuevas actividades de exportaci�n o importaci�n. Por otro lado, el c�lculo de los flujos de IED inducidos por la firma del tratado son conservadores de acuerdo a la experiencia de otros pa�ses que han firmado tratados comerciales similares.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorge Toro & Gloria Alonso & Pilar Esguerra & Daira Garrido, 2006. "El Impacto Del Tratado Del Libre Comercio Con Estados Unidos (Tlc) En La Balanza De Pagos Hasta 2010," Borradores de Economia 2511, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:002511
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    2. José Anson & Olivier Cadot & Antoni Estevadeordal & Jaime de Melo & Akiko Suwa‐Eisenmann & Bolormaa Tumurchudur, 2005. "Rules of Origin in North–South Preferential Trading Arrangements with an Application to NAFTA," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 501-517, August.
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    1. E.A. Haddad & J. Bonet & G.J.D. Hewings & F.S. Perobelli, 2009. "Spatial aspects of trade liberalization in Colombia: A general equilibrium approach," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 88(4), pages 699-732, November.

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