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Problemas en la medición del IPC, el Caso Colombiano

  • Edgar Caicedo

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    Este trabajo reseña los diferentes sesgos presentes en la medición del IPC en Colombia y cuantifica la magnitud del sesgo por sustitución en el consumo. Para esto último, se computó el IPC con diferentes formúlas de números índices (Laspeyres, Pasche, media geométrica, Ideal de Fisher y Tornqvist) y se analizó el nivel, la inflación y el sesgo por sustitución. Este último indicador se construyó identificando la diferencia, en porcentaje o en puntos porcentuales, de cualquier índice numérico con respecto a un índice que nos aproxima correctamente a un verdadero Ïndice de Costo de Vida, en este caso el ïndice Tornqvist encadenado. Los resultados obtenidos verifican que el índice utilizado por el DANE (Laspeyres) sobreestimó sistemáticamente la inflación al consumidor en 0.7 puntos porcentuales por año en el período 1989-1998, con un rango de sobreestimación que va de 0.2 puntos porcentuales en 1991 a 1.0 puntos en 1997. Adicionalmente, el documento presenta una evaluación de la nueva metodología del IPC del DANE (IPC -98), con el objetivo de identificar las diferentes innovaciones metodológicas incorporadas en la nueva canasta, las cuales permiten corregir o reducir los diferentes sesgos en el cálculo del IPC en Colombia.

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    File URL: http://www.banrep.gov.co/docum/ftp/borra152.pdf
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    Paper provided by Banco de la Republica de Colombia in its series Borradores de Economia with number 152.

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    Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:152
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