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Un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia: ajuste por competencia en terceros mercados

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Pablo Cote-Barón
  • Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia
  • María Alejandra Hernández-Montes

Abstract

En este documento se propone un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia, que incluye dentro de las ponderaciones de cada país un ajuste por su competencia en terceros mercados. Se utilizan datos de comercio a 3 dígitos de la Clasificación Uniforme para el Comercio Internacional (CUCI) de 39 países con frecuencia anual. Los resultados sugieren diferencias importantes respecto al índice ponderado únicamente por comercio bilateral, que es el calculado y publicado actualmente. En particular, las ponderaciones de Estados Unidos y China son significativamente menores en el indicador propuesto, y por grupos de países Latinoamérica y el Caribe tienen elmayor peso. El nuevo índice presenta unamayor depreciación en el periodo de análisis, 2007-2021. Adicionalmente, se calculan índices ponderados por cada uno de los componentes de la nueva ponderación, y se encuentra que el índice de la competencia en terceros mercados se distancia considerablemente del índice de competitividad actualmente calculado, sugiriendo una menor competitividad de Colombia. **** ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new real exchange rate index that includes weights accounting for both direct trade links and third-market competition effects. We use trade data at 3 digit Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) level for a set of 39 countries annually updated. We find important differences between this new index and the one weighted only by bilateral trade, which is currently calculated and published by the Central Bank of Colombia. In particular, the weights for the USA and China are significantly lower in the new index, while by groups of countries, Latin America and the Caribbean have the highest weight. The new index shows a larger depreciation during 2007-2021. We also construct indexes weighted by each component of the total weight of the new index, and we find that the index based on third-market competition differs considerably from the current competition index, suggesting a lower competitiveness of Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Cote-Barón & Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & María Alejandra Hernández-Montes, 2021. "Un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia: ajuste por competencia en terceros mercados," Borradores de Economia 1188, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1188
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1188
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tamim Bayoumi & Jaewoo Lee & Sarma Jayanthi, 2006. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-4.
    2. Marc Klau & San Sau Fung, 2006. "The new BIS effective exchange rate indices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    3. Jerram C. Betts & Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1997. "To chain or not to chain trade-weighted exchange rate indexes," Working Papers 1996-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

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