IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdr/borrec/1188.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia: ajuste por competencia en terceros mercados

Author

Listed:
  • Juan Pablo Cote-Barón
  • Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia
  • María Alejandra Hernández-Montes

Abstract

En este documento se propone un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia, que incluye dentro de las ponderaciones de cada país un ajuste por su competencia en terceros mercados. Se utilizan datos de comercio a 3 dígitos de la Clasificación Uniforme para el Comercio Internacional (CUCI) de 39 países con frecuencia anual. Los resultados sugieren diferencias importantes respecto al índice ponderado únicamente por comercio bilateral, que es el calculado y publicado actualmente. En particular, las ponderaciones de Estados Unidos y China son significativamente menores en el indicador propuesto, y por grupos de países Latinoamérica y el Caribe tienen elmayor peso. El nuevo índice presenta unamayor depreciación en el periodo de análisis, 2007-2021. Adicionalmente, se calculan índices ponderados por cada uno de los componentes de la nueva ponderación, y se encuentra que el índice de la competencia en terceros mercados se distancia considerablemente del índice de competitividad actualmente calculado, sugiriendo una menor competitividad de Colombia. **** ABSTRACT: This paper presents a new real exchange rate index that includes weights accounting for both direct trade links and third-market competition effects. We use trade data at 3 digit Standard International Trade Classification (SITC) level for a set of 39 countries annually updated. We find important differences between this new index and the one weighted only by bilateral trade, which is currently calculated and published by the Central Bank of Colombia. In particular, the weights for the USA and China are significantly lower in the new index, while by groups of countries, Latin America and the Caribbean have the highest weight. The new index shows a larger depreciation during 2007-2021. We also construct indexes weighted by each component of the total weight of the new index, and we find that the index based on third-market competition differs considerably from the current competition index, suggesting a lower competitiveness of Colombia.

Suggested Citation

  • Juan Pablo Cote-Barón & Deicy J. Cristiano-Botia & María Alejandra Hernández-Montes, 2021. "Un nuevo índice de tasa de cambio real para Colombia: ajuste por competencia en terceros mercados," Borradores de Economia 1188, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1188
    DOI: 10.32468/be.1188
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.32468/be.1188
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.32468/be.1188?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marc Klau & San Sau Fung, 2006. "The new BIS effective exchange rate indices," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    2. Jerram C. Betts & Cletus C. Coughlin & Patricia S. Pollard, 1997. "To chain or not to chain trade-weighted exchange rate indexes," Working Papers 1996-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Tamim Bayoumi & Jaewoo Lee & Sarma Jayanthi, 2006. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 53(2), pages 1-4.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mr. Herman Z Bennett & Ziga Zarnic, 2008. "International Competitiveness of the Mediterranean Quartet: A Heterogeneous-Product Approach," IMF Working Papers 2008/240, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Campbell, Douglas L., 2016. "Measurement matters: Productivity-adjusted weighted average relative price indices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 45-81.
    3. Martin McCarthy, Stephen Snudden, 2024. "Forecasts of Period-Average Exchange Rates: New Insights from Real-Time Daily Data," LCERPA Working Papers jc0148, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Oct 2024.
    4. Benkovskis, Konstantins & Wörz, Julia, 2018. "What drives the market share changes? Price versus non-price factors," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 9-29.
    5. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-127.
    6. Jón Steinsson, 2008. "The Dynamic Behavior of the Real Exchange Rate in Sticky Price Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(1), pages 519-533, March.
    7. Mpoha, Salifya & Bonga-Bonga, Lumengo, 2020. "Assessing the extent of exchange rate risk pricing in equity markets: emerging versus developed economies," MPRA Paper 99597, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Barry Eichengreen & Douglas A. Irwin, 2008. "International Economic Policy: Was There a Bush Doctrine?," NBER Working Papers 13831, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/17o1b2tj1o9vqae31ao13vabec is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2016. "Asymmetric loss and rationality of Chinese renminbi forecasts: An implication for the trade between China and the US," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 116-127.
    11. Thapa, Chandra & Poshakwale, Sunil S., 2012. "Country-specific equity market characteristics and foreign equity portfolio allocation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 189-211.
    12. Mayer, Thierry & Steingress, Walter, 2020. "Estimating the effect of exchange rate changes on total exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    13. Hematizadeh, Roksana & Tajaddini, Reza, 2024. "A state-dependent international CAPM for partially integrated markets: Using local and US risk factors," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    14. Joscha Beckmann & Mariarosaria Comunale, 2020. "Exchange rate fluctuations and the financial channel in emerging economies," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 83, Bank of Lithuania.
    15. Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Jakub Muck & Michal Rubaszek, 2016. "Real Exchange Rate Forecasting and PPP: This Time the Random Walk Loses," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(3), pages 585-609, July.
    16. Rudolfs Bems & Robert C. Johnson, 2017. "Demand for Value Added and Value-Added Exchange Rates," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 45-90, October.
    17. Duo Qin & Xinhua He, 2011. "Is the Chinese Currency Substantially Misaligned to Warrant Further Appreciation?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 34(8), pages 1288-1307, August.
    18. Sean Fahle & Jaime R. Marquez & Charles P. Thomas, 2008. "Measuring U.S. international relative prices: a WARP view of the world," International Finance Discussion Papers 917, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    19. Oliver Entrop & Matthias F. Merkel, 2020. "Managers’ research education, the use of FX derivatives and corporate speculation," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 869-901, August.
    20. Baghestani, Hamid & Chazi, Abdelaziz & Khallaf, Ashraf, 2019. "A directional analysis of oil prices and real exchange rates in BRIC countries," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 450-456.
    21. Jeanne, Olivier & Son, Jeongwon, 2012. "To what extent are tariffs offset by exchange rates?," Economics Working Paper Archive 66656, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Índice de tasa de cambio real; sistema de ponderaciones; competencia; terceros mercados; real exchange rate index; weights; competition; third markets.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdr:borrec:1188. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Clorith Angélica Bahos Olivera (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/brcgvco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.