IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_689_08.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A beta based framework for (lower) bond risk premia

Author

Listed:
  • Stefano Nobili

    (Bank of Italy, Asset Management Department)

  • Gerardo Palazzo

    (Bank of Italy, Asset Management Department)

Abstract

We use a no-arbitrage essentially affine three-factor model to estimate term premia in US and German ten-year government bond yields. In line with the existing literature, we find that estimated premia have followed a downward trend since the 1980s: from 4.9 per cent in 1981 to 0.7 per cent in 2006 for the US bond and from 3.3 to 0.5 per cent for the German one. Subsequently, using an Error Correction Model (ECM) we prove that the decline is explained by a decrease in global output variability and an increase in the power of ten-year government bonds to diversify the investors’ portfolios. In addition, the ECM also forecasts both the US and the German term premia converging to around one percentage point over a five year horizon. Long-term return expectations for ten-year government bonds will have to incorporate bond risk premia that - while in line with average excess returns during the twentieth century - are significantly lower than average excess returns over the last two decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Stefano Nobili & Gerardo Palazzo, 2008. "A beta based framework for (lower) bond risk premia," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 689, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_689_08
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2008/2008-0689/en_tema_689.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gurkaynak, Refet S. & Sack, Brian & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The U.S. Treasury yield curve: 1961 to the present," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2291-2304, November.
    2. de Jong, Frank, 2000. "Time Series and Cross-Section Information in Affine Term-Structure Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 18(3), pages 300-314, July.
    3. Oecd, 2006. "Factors behind Low Long-Term Interest Rates," Financial Market Trends, OECD Publishing, vol. 2006(2), pages 101-141.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carriero, Andrea & Kapetanios, George & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2012. "Forecasting government bond yields with large Bayesian vector autoregressions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2026-2047.
    2. Chernov, Mikhail & Mueller, Philippe, 2012. "The term structure of inflation expectations," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 367-394.
    3. Carlo Altavilla & Raffaella Giacomini & Giuseppe Ragusa, 2017. "Anchoring the yield curve using survey expectations," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(6), pages 1055-1068, September.
    4. Hans Dewachter & Marco Lyrio & Konstantijn Maes, 2004. "The Effect of Monetary Unification on German Bond Markets," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(3), pages 487-509, September.
    5. Bansal, Ravi & Miller, Shane & Song, Dongho & Yaron, Amir, 2021. "The term structure of equity risk premia," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1209-1228.
    6. Koijen, Ralph S.J. & Koulischer, François & Nguyen, Benoît & Yogo, Motohiro, 2021. "Inspecting the mechanism of quantitative easing in the euro area," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(1), pages 1-20.
    7. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wei, Min, 2012. "Evolving macroeconomic perceptions and the term structure of interest rates," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 239-254.
    8. Kitsul, Yuriy & Wright, Jonathan H., 2013. "The economics of options-implied inflation probability density functions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(3), pages 696-711.
    9. Cerutti, Eugenio M. & Obstfeld, Maurice & Zhou, Haonan, 2021. "Covered interest parity deviations: Macrofinancial determinants," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    10. Frank De Jong & Joost Driessen & Antoon Pelsser, 2001. "Libor Market Models versus Swap Market Models for Pricing Interest Rate Derivatives: An Empirical Analysis," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 5(3), pages 201-237.
    11. Petar Jevtić & Luca Regis, 2021. "A Square-Root Factor-Based Multi-Population Extension of the Mortality Laws," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(19), pages 1-17, September.
    12. Hong, Zhiwu & Niu, Linlin & Zhang, Chen, 2022. "Affine arbitrage-free yield net models with application to the euro debt crisis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 230(1), pages 201-220.
    13. Charlotte Christiansen, 2004. "Regime switching in the yield curve," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(4), pages 315-336, April.
    14. Benjamin Hébert & Jesse Schreger, 2017. "The Costs of Sovereign Default: Evidence from Argentina," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(10), pages 3119-3145, October.
    15. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/5221 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Richard Finlay & Mark Chambers, 2009. "A Term Structure Decomposition of the Australian Yield Curve," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 85(271), pages 383-400, December.
    17. Joyce, Michael A.S. & Lildholdt, Peter & Sorensen, Steffen, 2010. "Extracting inflation expectations and inflation risk premia from the term structure: A joint model of the UK nominal and real yield curves," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 281-294, February.
    18. Coman, Andra & Lloyd, Simon P., 2022. "In the face of spillovers: Prudential policies in emerging economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    19. Kollmann, Robert & Zeugner, Stefan, 2012. "Leverage as a predictor for real activity and volatility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 1267-1283.
    20. Gauthier, Geneviève & Simonato, Jean-Guy, 2012. "Linearized Nelson–Siegel and Svensson models for the estimation of spot interest rates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(2), pages 442-451.
    21. Yoichi Ueno & Naohiko Baba, 2006. "Default Intensity and Expected Recovery of Japanese Banks and "Government": New Evidence from the CDS Market," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-4, Bank of Japan.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure model; bond risk premium; modern portfolio theory;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_689_08. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.