IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1531_26.html

Macroeconomic effects of the green transition in the euro area and critical mineral bottlenecks

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Bartocci

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Cantelmo

    (Banl of Italy)

  • Pietro Cova

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

As the green transition accelerates, access to critical minerals is becoming a strategic vulnerability for advanced economies. This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of international critical mineral shortages on the euro area using a New Keynesian model calibrated to the euro area, China, and the rest of the world. A supply cut from China - the leading global supplier - raises mineral prices, offsetting the boost to activity and the decline in energy inflation driven by green energy subsidies. These adverse effects are mitigated when other countries expand supply, leading to diversification, and are also mitigated in the short run if the installed capacity of green energy is sufficiently large. While the macroeconomic impact of shocks to the prices of critical minerals is smaller than that of shocks to the price of fossil fuels, this assessment could change as the green transition accelerates and the demand for minerals needed to produce energy and goods rises.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Bartocci & Alessandro Cantelmo & Pietro Cova & Massimiliano Pisani, 2026. "Macroeconomic effects of the green transition in the euro area and critical mineral bottlenecks," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1531, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1531_26
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2026/2026-1531/en_tema_1531.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chris Papageorgiou & Marianne Saam & Patrick Schulte, 2017. "Substitution between Clean and Dirty Energy Inputs: A Macroeconomic Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 99(2), pages 281-290, May.
    2. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense [‘Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: some evidence for the United Kingdom’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 598-638.
    3. Adrien Concordel & Phuong Ho & Christopher R. Knittel, 2026. "The Differential Impacts of Critical Mineral Prices and Oil Prices on the Economy," NBER Working Papers 34847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. repec:bla:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:48:p:597-638 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Andersson, Malin & Köhler-Ulbrich, Petra & Nerlich, Carolin, 2025. "Green investment needs in the EU and their funding," Economic Bulletin Articles, European Central Bank, vol. 1.
    6. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bartocci, Anna & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2024. "“Green” fiscal policy measures and nonstandard monetary policy in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    2. Christian Schoder & Remzi Baris Tercioglu, 2024. "A climate-fiscal policy mix to achieve Türkiye’s net-zero ambition under feasibility constraints," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 331-359, April.
    3. Coenen, Günter & Lozej, Matija & Priftis, Romanos, 2024. "Macroeconomic effects of carbon transition policies: An assessment based on the ECB’s New Area-Wide Model with a disaggregated energy sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    4. Anton Nakov & Carlos Thomas, 2023. "Climate-conscious monetary policy," Working Papers 2334, Banco de España.
    5. Huang, Bihong & Punzi, Maria Teresa & Wu, Yu, 2022. "Environmental regulation and financial stability: Evidence from Chinese manufacturing firms," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    6. Gernot Mueller & Giancarlo Corsetti, 2007. "International Dimensions of Fiscal Policy Transmission," 2007 Meeting Papers 726, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Garcia Silva, Pablo & Gutierrez Schweitzer, Maria de los Angeles & Medina Guzman, Juan Pablo, 2025. "Macroeconomic Impact of the Energy Transition," MPRA Paper 123225, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Hinterlang, Natascha & Martin, Anika & Röhe, Oke & Stähler, Nikolai & Strobel, Johannes, 2022. "Using energy and emissions taxation to finance labor tax reductions in a multi-sector economy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    9. Qiao, Hui & Qin, Ping & Liu, Yang & Yang, Yugang, 2023. "International energy trade and inflation dynamics: The role of invoicing currency use during the low carbon transition," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
    10. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
    11. Nickel, Christiane & Kilponen, Juha & Moral-Benito, Enrique & Koester, Gerrit & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Enders, Almira & Holton, Sarah & Landau, Bettina & Venditti, Fabrizio & Bobeica, Elena & Brand, Cla, 2025. "A strategic view on the economic and inflation environment in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 371, European Central Bank.
    12. Burlon, L. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2021. "Fiscal devaluation and labor market frictions in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 135-156.
    13. Priftis, Romanos & Schoenle, Raphael, 2025. "Fiscal and macroprudential policies during an energy crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    14. Enders, Zeno & Müller, Gernot J. & Scholl, Almuth, 2011. "How do fiscal and technology shocks affect real exchange rates?: New evidence for the United States," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 53-69, January.
    15. Chafwehé, Boris & Colciago, Andrea & Priftis, Romanos, 2025. "Reallocation, productivity, and monetary policy in an energy crisis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    16. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2021. "Adaptive Importance Sampling for DSGE Models," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS84, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    17. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2010. "Cross-Border Spillovers from Fiscal Stimulus," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 6(1), pages 5-37, March.
    18. Saeidinezhad, Elham, 2014. "The International Spillover of Fiscal and Technology Shocks before the Crisis: The case of the UK and Italy," MPRA Paper 98556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Stefano Grassi & Marco Lorusso & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2025. "Adaptive Importance Sampling Estimation of an Open Economy Model with Fiscal Policy," BEMPS - Bozen Economics & Management Paper Series BEMPS111, Faculty of Economics and Management at the Free University of Bozen.
    20. Bouakez, Hafedh & Eyquem, Aurélien, 2015. "Government spending, monetary policy, and the real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 178-201.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1531_26. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.