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Artificial intelligence and the US economy: an accounting perspective on investment and production

Author

Listed:
  • Luisa Carpinelli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Filippo Natoli

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Taboga

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

Artificial intelligence (AI) has moved to the centre of policy, market and academic debates, but its macroeconomic footprint is still only partly understood. This paper provides an overview on how the reverberations of the AI wave are captured in US national accounts, combining a simple macro-accounting framework with a stylized description of the AI production process. We highlight the crucial role played by data centres, which constitute the backbone of the AI ecosystem and attracted formidable investment in 2025 to meet the worldwide demand for AI services. In the first three quarters of the year, the boom in IT and AI-related capital expenditure clearly boosted aggregate US demand; the contribution to GDP was more limited, as a result of the high import incidence in AI hardware. Furthermore, simple calculations suggest that, at current utilization rates and pricing, the production of services originating in new AI data centres could boost GDP in the near future on a scale comparable to that recorded so far by investment spending. Short reinvestment cycles and uncertainty about future AI demand, while yet to act as a drag on growth, can nevertheless fuel macroeconomic risks over the medium term.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Carpinelli & Filippo Natoli & Marco Taboga, 2026. "Artificial intelligence and the US economy: an accounting perspective on investment and production," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 1006, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_1006_26
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carol Corrado & Charles Hulten & Daniel Sichel, 2005. "Measuring Capital and Technology: An Expanded Framework," NBER Chapters, in: Measuring Capital in the New Economy, pages 11-46, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Lilia Patrignani & Michele Savini Zangrandi & Alessandro Schiavone, 2025. "Between sanctions and subsidies: reshaping the semiconductor ecosystem," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 934, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Tina Highfill & David Wasshausen & Gregory Prunchak, 2025. "Concepts and Challenges of Measuring Production of Artificial Intelligence in the U.S. Economy," BEA Papers 0134, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • O3 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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