Contagion and portfolio shift in emerging countries' sovereign bonds
The paper tests whether there were events of contagion, and portfolio shift, in the sovereign bond markets of eleven emerging countries' between January 1995 and November 2001. From existing definitions, we narrow down the concept of contagion by focusing on pricing errors, after general market movements haven been taken into account with a three factor asset pricing model. We measure contagion (and portfolio shift) in terms of a causal positive (negative) dynamic co movement between sovereign bond pricing errors. Downgrades of sovereign ratings are used as proxies for a shock. We find empirical support for contagion and portfolio shift for a number of countries on the basis of our definition.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996.
"Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings,"
Economic Policy Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
- Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impacts of sovereign credit ratings," Research Paper 9608, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
- Sebastian Edwards, 1998. "Interest Rate Volatility, Capital Controls, and Contagion," NBER Working Papers 6756, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994.
"Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets,"
Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-33, July.
- Mervyn King & Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1990. "Volatiltiy and Links Between National Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 3357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Perrelli & Christian B. Mulder, 2001. "Foreign Currency Credit Ratings for Emerging Market Economies," IMF Working Papers 01/191, International Monetary Fund.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Kaminsky, Graciela, 1999.
"The twin crises: The causes of banking and balance of payments problems,"
14081, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
- Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1996. "The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems," International Finance Discussion Papers 544, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Roberto Rigobon, 2001.
"Contagion: How to Measure It?,"
NBER Working Papers
8118, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. " International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-84, June.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tamim Bayoumi & Manmohan S. Kumar & Giorgio Fazio & Ronald MacDonald, 2003. "Fatal Attraction; A New Measure of Contagion," IMF Working Papers 03/80, International Monetary Fund.
- Marcello Pericoli & Massimo Sbracia, 2001.
"A Primer on Financial Contagion,"
Temi di discussione (Economic working papers)
407, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
- G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2002.
"Some Contagion, Some Interdependence: More Pitfalls in Tests of Financial Contagion,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3310, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Sbracia, Massimo, 2005. "'Some contagion, some interdependence': More pitfalls in tests of financial contagion," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(8), pages 1177-1199, December.
- Barry Eichengreen & Ashoka Mody, 1998. "What Explains Changing Spreads on Emerging-Market Debt: Fundamentals or Market Sentiment?," NBER Working Papers 6408, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0317. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mar�a Beiro. Electronic Dissemination of Information Unit. Research Department. Banco de Espa�a)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.