Estimating loss and damage from climate-induced disasters: An Evaluation using ICRIER 'Prakriti' Model

Using the ICRIER Prakriti Disaster Management Model, a regional input-output (RIO) model to study the impact of disasters on local businesses and the economy, the paper assesses two disaster-affected states of India- Assam (flooding) and Andhra Pradesh (cyclones). The modelling exercise highlighted that even though the states differ in terms of the direct impact experienced (with Andhra Pradesh being affected twice as much), the indirect impacts were found to be manifold. Three key results emerge from the analysis. First, cyclone instances in Andhra Pradesh led to a loss of 1.53 per cent in value of output in 2018-19, which is expected to rise in the future, as both the intensity and frequency of cyclones would increase with climate change. Second, despite its high direct losses, Assam was relatively much less affected when the loss of assets by private entities was accounted for. This may be reflective of the high annual frequency of flooding incidences in the state, and the state's high resilience towards this risk. Third, the analysis of the two states revealed distinct loss profiles influenced by their developmental patterns, with Andhra Pradesh experiencing significant losses in the chemical sector, whereas Assam's losses were mainly concentrated in water supply, rubber and plastics, and textiles industries.