Going Deeper Into the Link Between the Labour Market and Inflation
The unemployment rate is one of the most closely watched economic indicators. However, it has important limitations and shortcomings as a measure of the state of the labour market. This could help to explain the fact that in traditional Phillips curves unemployment explains but a small part of inflation. This paper tries to mitigate such problems going deeper into labour market indicators. With that aim alternative unemployment rates are built and assessed, along with disaggregated unemployment rates and other labour market indicators. The evidence shows that some of those indicators have considerably greater explanatory power over inflation than the traditional unemployment rate and, therefore, should be followed closely by policymakers.
References listed on IDEAS
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- Stephen R. G. Jones & W. Craig Riddell, 1998. "Unemployment and Labor Force Attachment: A Multistate Analysis of Nonemployment," NBER Chapters, in: Labor Statistics Measurement Issues, pages 123-155 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164, May.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006.
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American Economic Association, vol. 20(3), pages 3-26, Summer.
- Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John Haltiwanger, 2006. "The Flow Approach to Labor Markets: New Data Sources and Micro-Macro Links," NBER Working Papers 12167, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-83, June.
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