IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/25-22.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Dynamic Consumer Cash Inventory Model

Author

Listed:
  • Kim Huynh
  • Oleksandr Shcherbakov
  • André Stenzel

Abstract

We study consumer cash inventory behavior by developing a dynamic model of forward-looking consumers and estimating structural parameters of the model using detailed consumer survey data. Consumers facing holding and withdrawal costs solve a discrete-time continuous-control dynamic programming problem to optimally use cash at the point of sale. Our findings suggest that it is crucial to account for persistent heterogeneity in consumer preferences to accurately measure the demand for cash and consumer welfare. We show that deteriorating access to cash triggers a bi-modal response. Some consumers substantially reduce or even stop the use of cash in favor of digital means of payment, while others exhibit a limited response and instead withdraw and hold larger amounts.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim Huynh & Oleksandr Shcherbakov & André Stenzel, 2025. "Dynamic Consumer Cash Inventory Model," Staff Working Papers 25-22, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-22
    DOI: 10.34989/swp-2025-22
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.34989/swp-2025-22
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/swp2025-22.pdf
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.34989/swp-2025-22?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rust, John, 1987. "Optimal Replacement of GMC Bus Engines: An Empirical Model of Harold Zurcher," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 999-1033, September.
    2. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller & Seth Sanders & Jeffrey Smith, 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 61(2), pages 265-289.
    3. Patrick Bajari & C. Lanier Benkard & Jonathan Levin, 2007. "Estimating Dynamic Models of Imperfect Competition," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(5), pages 1331-1370, September.
    4. Fox, Jeremy T. & Kim, Kyoo il & Yang, Chenyu, 2016. "A simple nonparametric approach to estimating the distribution of random coefficients in structural models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 236-254.
    5. Naoki Wakamori & Angelika Welte, 2017. "Why Do Shoppers Use Cash? Evidence from Shopping Diary Data," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 115-169, February.
    6. V. Joseph Hotz & Robert A. Miller, 1993. "Conditional Choice Probabilities and the Estimation of Dynamic Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 60(3), pages 497-529.
    7. Walter Engert & Ben Fung & Björn Segendorf, 2019. "A Tale of Two Countries: Cash Demand in Canada and Sweden," Discussion Papers 2019-7, Bank of Canada.
    8. William J. Baumol, 1952. "The Transactions Demand for Cash: An Inventory Theoretic Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 66(4), pages 545-556.
    9. Kim Huynh & Gradon Nicholls & Oleksandr Shcherbakov, 2022. "Equilibrium in Two-Sided Markets for Payments: Consumer Awareness and the Welfare Cost of the Interchange Fee," Staff Working Papers 22-15, Bank of Canada.
    10. Fernando Alvarez & Francesco Lippi, 2009. "Financial Innovation and the Transactions Demand for Cash," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(2), pages 363-402, March.
    11. Sergei Koulayev & Marc Rysman & Scott Schuh & Joanna Stavins, 2016. "Explaining adoption and use of payment instruments by US consumers," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 47(2), pages 293-325, May.
    12. Alvarez, Fernando & Lippi, Francesco, 2017. "Cash burns: An inventory model with a cash-credit choice," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 99-112.
    13. Brian McManus & Aviv Nevo & Zachary Nolan & Jonathan W. Williams, 2022. "The Steering Incentives of Gatekeepers in the Telecommunications Industry," NBER Working Papers 30399, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Christopher Henry & Matthew Shimoda & Doina Rusu, 2024. "2023 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report: The Resilience of Cash," Discussion Papers 2024-08, Bank of Canada.
    15. Walter Engert & Oleksandr Shcherbakov & André Stenzel, 2024. "CBDC in the Market for Payments at the Point of Sale: Equilibrium Impact and Incumbent Responses," Staff Working Papers 24-52, Bank of Canada.
    16. Steven Berry & James Levinsohn & Ariel Pakes, 2004. "Differentiated Products Demand Systems from a Combination of Micro and Macro Data: The New Car Market," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(1), pages 68-105, February.
    17. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    18. Walter Engert & Kim Huynh, 2022. "Cash, COVID-19 and the Prospects for a Canadian Digital Dollar," Discussion Papers 2022-17, Bank of Canada.
    19. Christopher Henry & Kim Huynh & Angelika Welte, 2018. "2017 Methods-of-Payment Survey Report," Discussion Papers 18-17, Bank of Canada.
    20. Heng Chen & Matthew Strathearn, 2020. "A Spatial Panel Model of Bank Branches in Canada," Advances in Econometrics, in: The Econometrics of Networks, volume 42, pages 175-204, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    21. Jeremy T. Fox & Kyoo il Kim & Stephen P. Ryan & Patrick Bajari, 2011. "A simple estimator for the distribution of random coefficients," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 2(3), pages 381-418, November.
    22. Heng Chen & Matthew Strathearn, 2020. "A Spatial Model of Bank Branches in Canada," Staff Working Papers 20-4, Bank of Canada.
    23. Paolo Bartesaghi & Michele Benzi & Gian Paolo Clemente & Rosanna Grassi & Ernesto Estrada, 2019. "Risk-dependent centrality in economic and financial networks," Papers 1907.07908, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2020.
    24. Ariel Pakes & Michael Ostrovsky & Steven Berry, 2007. "Simple estimators for the parameters of discrete dynamic games (with entry/exit examples)," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 38(2), pages 373-399, June.
    25. Aviv Nevo & John L. Turner & Jonathan W. Williams, 2016. "Usage‐Based Pricing and Demand for Residential Broadband," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 411-443, March.
    26. Heng Chen & Matthew Strathearn & Marcel Voia, 2021. "Consumer Cash Withdrawal Behaviour: Branch Networks and Online Financial Innovation," Staff Working Papers 21-28, Bank of Canada.
    27. Amil Petrin, 2002. "Quantifying the Benefits of New Products: The Case of the Minivan," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 705-729, August.
    28. Whitesell, William C, 1989. "The Demand for Currency versus Debitable Accounts: A Note," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(2), pages 246-257, May.
    29. Walter Engert & Oleksandr Shcherbakov & André Stenzel, 2024. "The impact of a central bank digital currency on payments at the point of sale," Staff Analytical Notes 2024-27, Bank of Canada.
    30. Alvarez, Fernando & Argente, David & Jimenez, Rafael & Lippi, Francesco, 2022. "Cash: A Blessing or a curse?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 85-128.
    31. Marie-Hélène Felt, 2020. "Losing Contact: The Impact of Contactless Payments on Cash Usage," Staff Working Papers 20-56, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tamás Briglevics & Scott Schuh, 2020. "This Is What's in Your Wallet...and Here's How You Use It," Working Papers 20-04, Department of Economics, West Virginia University.
    2. Martin Brown & Nicole Hentschel & Hannes Mettler & Helmut Stix, 2020. "Financial Innovation, Payment Choice and Cash Demand - Causal Evidence from the Staggered Introduction of Contactless Debit Cards," Working Papers on Finance 2002, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    3. Martin Brown & Nicole Hentschel & Hannes Mettler & Helmut Stix, 2020. "Financial Innovation, Payment Choice and Cash Demand – Causal Evidence from the Staggered Introduction of Contactless Debit Cards (Martin Brown,Nicole Hentschel, Hannes Mettler, Helmut Stix)," Working Papers 230, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    4. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Mira, Pedro, 2010. "Dynamic discrete choice structural models: A survey," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 156(1), pages 38-67, May.
    5. Brown, Martin & Hentschel, Nicole & Mettler, Hannes & Stix, Helmut, 2022. "The convenience of electronic payments and consumer cash demand," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 86-102.
    6. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    7. Daniel Ackerberg, 2009. "A new use of importance sampling to reduce computational burden in simulation estimation," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 7(4), pages 343-376, December.
    8. Schutz, Nicolas & Cullen, Joseph & Shcherbakov, Oleksandr, 2020. "The Welfare Effects of Early Termination Fees in the US Wireless Industry," CEPR Discussion Papers 15506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Joao Macieira, 2010. "Oblivious Equilibrium in Dynamic Discrete Games," 2010 Meeting Papers 680, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Johannes Van Biesebroeck & Aamir Hashmi, 2007. "Market Structure and Innovation: A Dynamic Analysis of the Global Automobile Industry," 2007 Meeting Papers 362, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Federico A. Bugni & Jackson Bunting & Takuya Ura, 2025. "Testing homogeneity in dynamic discrete games in finite samples," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 16(4), pages 1267-1320, November.
    12. Komarova, Tatiana & Sanches, Fábio & Silva Junior, Daniel & Srisuma, Sorawoot, 2018. "Joint analysis of the discount factor and payoff parameters in dynamic discrete choice games," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86858, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Haizhen Lin, 2015. "Quality Choice And Market Structure: A Dynamic Analysis Of Nursing Home Oligopolies," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1261-1290, November.
    14. Srisuma, Sorawoot & Linton, Oliver, 2012. "Semiparametric estimation of Markov decision processes with continuous state space," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 320-341.
    15. Peter Arcidiacono & Paul B. Ellickson, 2011. "Practical Methods for Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 363-394, September.
    16. Aguirregabiria, Victor & Nevo, Aviv, 2010. "Recent developments in empirical IO: dynamic demand and dynamic games," MPRA Paper 27814, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Peter Arcidiacono & Patrick Bayer & Jason R. Blevins & Paul B. Ellickson, 2016. "Estimation of Dynamic Discrete Choice Models in Continuous Time with an Application to Retail Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 83(3), pages 889-931.
    18. Scott, Paul, 2014. "Dynamic Discrete Choice Estimation of Agricultural Land Use," TSE Working Papers 14-526, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    19. Hu, Yingyao & Shum, Matthew, 2012. "Nonparametric identification of dynamic models with unobserved state variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 171(1), pages 32-44.
    20. Gallant, A. Ronald & Hong, Han & Khwaja, Ahmed, 2018. "A Bayesian approach to estimation of dynamic models with small and large number of heterogeneous players and latent serially correlated states," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 19-32.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • D14 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Household Saving; Personal Finance
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:25-22. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.