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A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate

Author

Listed:
  • Russell Barnett
  • Karyne B. Charbonneau
  • Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle

Abstract

Canada’s international competitiveness has received increasing attention in recent years as exports have fallen short of expectations and Canada has lost market share. This paper asks whether the Bank of Canada’s current effective exchange rate measure, the CERI, is still an accurate measure of Canada’s international competitiveness. Overall, while the CERI represented an improvement over previous measures when it was introduced, we find that it has several drawbacks that make it less well suited to address current competitiveness issues. To address these deficiencies, we develop a new Canadian effective exchange rate (CEER) index using a methodology based on current international best practices. The new index includes a broader set of countries and uses annually updated competition-based weights. These weights account for both Canada’s bilateral trade with another country and the competition Canada faces from that country on a product-by-product basis in third markets. We find that the CEER has depreciated less than the CERI in recent years, reflecting the greater importance of third-market competition from emerging-market economies in the CEER. This could help explain why Canada’s share of the U.S. import market has continued to decline despite the recent large depreciation of the Canadian dollar against the currencies of a number of advanced economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Russell Barnett & Karyne B. Charbonneau & Guillaume Poulin-Bellisle, 2016. "A New Measure of the Canadian Effective Exchange Rate," Discussion Papers 16-1, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocadp:16-1
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mico Loretan, 2005. "Indexes of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 91(Win), pages 1-8.
    2. Daan Steenkamp, 2014. "Measuring New Zealand’s effective exchange rate," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Bulletin, Reserve Bank of New Zealand, vol. 77, pages 1-15, December.
    3. Michael P. Leahy, 1998. "New summary measures of the foreign exchange value of the dollar," Federal Reserve Bulletin, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), vol. 84(Oct), pages 811-818, October.
    4. International Monetary Fund, 2005. "New Rates from New Weights," IMF Working Papers 2005/099, International Monetary Fund.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mayer, Thierry & Steingress, Walter, 2020. "Estimating the effect of exchange rate changes on total exports," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    2. Taylor Webley, 2018. "Characterizing Canada’s Export Sector by Industry: A Supply-Side Perspective," Staff Analytical Notes 2018-27, Bank of Canada.
    3. Bulusu, Narayan & Guérin, Pierre, 2019. "What drives interbank loans? Evidence from Canada," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 427-444.
    4. Chernis, Tony & Cheung, Calista & Velasco, Gabriella, 2020. "A three-frequency dynamic factor model for nowcasting Canadian provincial GDP growth," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 851-872.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rates; International topics;

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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