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The Role of Economic Size and Distance in Turkey's Exports

Listed author(s):
  • Zumrut Imamoglu


    (Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research)

  • Baris Soybilgen


    (Bahcesehir University Center for Economic and Social Research)

The high trade deficit stands out as one of the important problems of Turkey. Especially during the boom periods, trade deficit increases immensely and restricts the growth potential of the Turkish economy. Although a large share of the trade deficit is caused by energy related imports, still Turkey’s exports have to cover its imports in order to prevent the current account deficit from reaching unsustainable levels. In this research brief, we analyze Turkey’s export potential to its trading partners’ with respect to economic size and distance during two time periods; before and after the global crisis. Our analysis show that Turkey’s exports to Japan, India, some North and East European countries as well as Greece are way below its potential. On the other hand, Turkey’s exports to countries with which Turkey has a high trade deficit, such as Russia, China, US and Germany, are above its potential. Without any structural changes in the economy, exports to countries with a potential gap may be increased, but Turkey’s export potential in new markets is smaller than anticipated. For a sizable increase in exports, Turkey needs to implement structural reforms that will strengthen its competitiveness and enhance the variety of its exports, without delay.

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Paper provided by Bahcesehir University, Betam in its series Research Briefs with number 135.

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Length: 11 pages
Date of creation: Jul 2012
Handle: RePEc:bae:rbrief:135
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  1. James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
  2. Antonucci, Daniele & Manzocchi, Stefano, 2006. "Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?: A gravity model approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 157-169, June.
  3. Ozgul Bilici & Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2008. "The Determining Role of EU in Turkey's Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 0806, Izmir University of Economics.
  4. McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
  5. Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March.
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