The Role of Economic Size and Distance in Turkey's Exports
The high trade deficit stands out as one of the important problems of Turkey. Especially during the boom periods, trade deficit increases immensely and restricts the growth potential of the Turkish economy. Although a large share of the trade deficit is caused by energy related imports, still Turkey’s exports have to cover its imports in order to prevent the current account deficit from reaching unsustainable levels. In this research brief, we analyze Turkey’s export potential to its trading partners’ with respect to economic size and distance during two time periods; before and after the global crisis. Our analysis show that Turkey’s exports to Japan, India, some North and East European countries as well as Greece are way below its potential. On the other hand, Turkey’s exports to countries with which Turkey has a high trade deficit, such as Russia, China, US and Germany, are above its potential. Without any structural changes in the economy, exports to countries with a potential gap may be increased, but Turkey’s export potential in new markets is smaller than anticipated. For a sizable increase in exports, Turkey needs to implement structural reforms that will strengthen its competitiveness and enhance the variety of its exports, without delay.
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2003.
"Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 170-192, March.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2000. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 485, Boston College Department of Economics.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2001. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," NBER Working Papers 8079, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Antonucci, Daniele & Manzocchi, Stefano, 2006. "Does Turkey have a special trade relation with the EU?: A gravity model approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 157-169, June.
- Ozgul Bilici & Erkan Erdil & I. Hakan Yetkiner, 2008. "The Determining Role of EU in Turkey's Trade Flows: A Gravity Model Approach," Working Papers 0806, Izmir University of Economics.
- McCallum, John, 1995. "National Borders Matter: Canada-U.S. Regional Trade Patterns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 85(3), pages 615-623, June.
- Anderson, James E, 1979. "A Theoretical Foundation for the Gravity Equation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 69(1), pages 106-116, March. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bae:rbrief:135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Merve Akgul)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.