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Nonlinear Dynamical Model of Regime Switching Between Conventions and Business Cycles

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  • V. I. Yukalov
  • D. Sornette
  • E. P. Yukalova

Abstract

We introduce and study a non-equilibrium continuous-time dynamical model of the price of a single asset traded by a population of heterogeneous interacting agents in the presence of uncertainty and regulatory constraints. The model takes into account (i) the price formation delay between decision and investment by the second-order nature of the dynamical equations, (ii) the linear and nonlinear mean-reversal or their contrarian in the form of speculative price trading, (iii) market friction, (iv) uncertainty in the fundamental value which controls the amplitude of mispricing, (v) nonlinear speculative momentum effects and (vi) market regulations that may limit large mispricing drifts. We find markets with coexisting equilibrium, conventions and business cycles, which depend on (a) the relative strength of value-investing versus momentum-investing, (b) the level of uncertainty on the fundamental value and (c) the degree of market regulation. The stochastic dynamics is characterized by nonlinear geometric random walk-like processes with spontaneous regime shifts between different conventions or business cycles. This model provides a natural dynamical framework to model regime shifts between different market phases that may result from the interplay between the effects (i-vi).

Suggested Citation

  • V. I. Yukalov & D. Sornette & E. P. Yukalova, 2007. "Nonlinear Dynamical Model of Regime Switching Between Conventions and Business Cycles," Papers nlin/0701014, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:nlin/0701014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Jean-Philippe Bouchaud & Rama Cont, 1998. "A Langevin approach to stock market fluctuations and crashes," Science & Finance (CFM) working paper archive 500027, Science & Finance, Capital Fund Management.
    6. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    7. Andersen, J.V. & Sornette, D., 2004. "Fearless versus fearful speculative financial bubbles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 565-585.
    8. Boyer, Robert & Orlean, Andre, 1992. "How Do Conventions Evolve?," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 165-177, October.
    9. Broekstra, Gerrit & Sornette, Didier & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2005. "Bubble, critical zone and the crash of Royal Ahold," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 346(3), pages 529-560.
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