IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2610.11093.html

Risk Ceilings and Development Deadlines: Pacing AI under Uncertain Safety Productivity

Author

Listed:
  • Li Gan

Abstract

Can a regulator promise both a risk ceiling and a development deadline when safety productivity is unknown? A ceiling below the final model's unprotected hazard requires a minimum stock of safety knowledge, so both promises hold only if weak research can be ruled out. Learning first and then replaying development, with spare compute in safety, comes close to that minimum. In a calibration with only state risk, constant safety yield, and full knowledge transfer, it needs only 3.3 percent more productivity than the necessary bound. Customer services pay for the guarantee. Rules that fix compute allocation fix dates, not risk.

Suggested Citation

  • Li Gan, 2026. "Risk Ceilings and Development Deadlines: Pacing AI under Uncertain Safety Productivity," Papers 2610.11093, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2026.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.11093
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2610.11093
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 1996. "Accounting for global warming risks: Resource management under event uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(6-7), pages 1289-1305.
    2. Fabian Herweg & Klaus M Schmidt, 2022. "How to Regulate Carbon Emissions with Climate-Conscious Consumers," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(648), pages 2992-3019.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Narain, Urvashi & Fisher, Anthony, 1998. "Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Catastrophic Global Warming," CUDARE Working Papers 198662, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    2. Maria Arvaniti & Chandra K. Krishnamurthy & Anne-Sophie Crépin, 2019. "Time-consistent resource management with regime shifts," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 19/329, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    3. Guillouet, Louise & Martimort, David, 2023. "Acting in the Darkness," TSE Working Papers 23-1411, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE), revised Feb 2026.
    4. Sakamoto, Hiroaki, 2014. "Dynamic resource management under the risk of regime shifts," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 1-19.
    5. Lenders, Marc, 2025. "Should carbon offsets and adaptation measures be subsidized or publicly provided?," VfS Annual Conference 2025 (Cologne): Revival of Industrial Policy 325437, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    6. Lemoine, Derek M. & Traeger, Christian P., "undated". "Tipping Points and Ambiguity in the Economics of Climate Change," CUDARE Working Papers 98127, University of California, Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
    7. Thomas Eichner & Rüdiger Pethig, 2026. "How Important are IEAs for Mitigation if Countries are of the Homo Moralis Type?," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 89(3), pages 1-42, March.
    8. Tsur, Yacov & Zemel, Amos, 2016. "Policy tradeoffs under risk of abrupt climate change," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 132(PB), pages 46-55.
    9. Felix Bierbrauer, 2024. "Is a Uniform Price on Carbon Desirable? A Public Finance Perspective," CESifo Working Paper Series 11201, CESifo.
    10. Matti Liski & Francois Salanie, 2020. "Catastrophes, delays, and learning," Working Papers 2020.20, FAERE - French Association of Environmental and Resource Economists.
    11. repec:hal:pseose:insu-01105358 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Pan, Junyu & Du, Lizhao & Wu, Haitao & Liu, Xiaoqian, 2024. "Does environmental law enforcement supervision improve corporate carbon reduction performance? Evidence from environmental protection interview," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    13. repec:ces:ceswps:_11593 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Pol Campos-Mercade & Claes Ek & Magnus Soderberg & Florian H. Schneider, 2025. "Social Preferences and Environmental Externalities," CESifo Working Paper Series 11895, CESifo.
    15. Davin, Marion & Fodha, Mouez & Seegmuller, Thomas, 2026. "Distance to the end: The question of UNsustainability," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    16. Murray C. Kemp & Ngo Van Long, 2007. "Extracting Several Resource Deposits of Unknown Size: Optimal Order," CIRANO Working Papers 2007s-10, CIRANO.
    17. Yacov Tsur & Cees Withagen, 2013. "Preparing for catastrophic climate change," Journal of Economics, Springer, vol. 110(3), pages 225-239, November.
    18. Brozovic, Nicholas & Schlenker, Wolfram, 2011. "Optimal management of an ecosystem with an unknown threshold," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(4), pages 627-640, February.
    19. Liebensteiner, Mario & Kimani, Alex Mburu, 2026. "Environmental and health costs of Europe’s shift from gas to coal amidst the energy crisis," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 241(C).
    20. Aurélie Méjean & Antonin Pottier & Marc Fleurbaey & Stéphane Zuber, 2020. "Catastrophic climate change, population ethics and intergenerational equity," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 163(2), pages 873-890, November.
    21. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2018. "Political economy of dynamic resource wars," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 765-782.
    22. Lucas Bretschger & Alexandra Vinogradova, 2017. "Human Development at Risk: Economic Growth with Pollution-Induced Health Shocks," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 66(3), pages 481-495, March.

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2610.11093. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.