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Do Prediction Markets Forecast Cryptocurrency Volatility? Evidence from Kalshi Macro Contracts

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  • Hardhik Mohanty
  • Bhaskar Krishnamachari

Abstract

Daily probability changes in Kalshi macro prediction markets forecast cryptocurrency realized volatility through two distinct channels. The monetary policy channel, measured by Fed rate repricing on KXFED contracts, predicts Bitcoin volatility in sample with t = 3.63 and p

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  • Hardhik Mohanty & Bhaskar Krishnamachari, 2026. "Do Prediction Markets Forecast Cryptocurrency Volatility? Evidence from Kalshi Macro Contracts," Papers 2604.01431, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2604.01431
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    References listed on IDEAS

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