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Pricing Derivatives under Self-Exciting Dynamics: A Finite-Difference and Transform Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Aqib Ahmed
  • Hei{dh}ar Eyj'olfsson

Abstract

We consider the pricing of derivatives written on accumulated marks, such as weather derivatives or aggregate loss claims, using a self-exciting marked point process. The jump intensity mean-reverts between events and increases at jump times by an amount proportional to the mark. The resulting state process, where the variable $U_t$ accumulates jump magnitudes, is a piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP). We derive the discounted pricing equation as a backward partial integro-differential equation (PIDE) in two spatial dimensions. To overcome the dimensionality, we propose an exponential (Laplace/Fourier) transform in the accumulated mark variable, which diagonalizes the translation operator and reduces the pricing problem to a family of one-dimensional PIDEs in the intensity variable along a Bromwich contour. For Gamma-mixture mark laws (under actuarial or Esscher-tilted measures), the nonlocal jump term is efficiently approximated by generalized Gauss--Laguerre quadrature. We solve the reduced PIDEs backward in time using a monotone IMEX finite difference scheme (implicit upwind drift and discounting, explicit jump operator) and recover option prices via numerical inversion. We provide a rigorous, term-by-term global error bound covering time and space discretization, quadrature, interpolation, and boundary effects, supported by numerical experiments and Monte Carlo benchmarks.

Suggested Citation

  • Aqib Ahmed & Hei{dh}ar Eyj'olfsson, 2026. "Pricing Derivatives under Self-Exciting Dynamics: A Finite-Difference and Transform Approach," Papers 2603.12602, arXiv.org.
  • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2603.12602
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    References listed on IDEAS

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