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SAE-FiRE: Enhancing Earnings Surprise Predictions Through Sparse Autoencoder Feature Selection

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  • Huopu Zhang
  • Yanguang Liu
  • Mengnan Du

Abstract

Predicting earnings surprises through the analysis of earnings conference call transcripts has attracted increasing attention from the financial research community. Conference calls serve as critical communication channels between company executives, analysts, and shareholders, offering valuable forward-looking information. However, these transcripts present significant analytical challenges, typically containing over 5,000 words with substantial redundancy and industry-specific terminology that creates obstacles for language models. In this work, we propose the Sparse Autoencoder for Financial Representation Enhancement (SAE-FiRE) framework to address these limitations by extracting key information while eliminating redundancy. SAE-FiRE employs Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) to efficiently identify patterns and filter out noises, and focusing specifically on capturing nuanced financial signals that have predictive power for earnings surprises. Experimental results indicate that the proposed method can significantly outperform comparing baselines.

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  • Huopu Zhang & Yanguang Liu & Mengnan Du, 2025. "SAE-FiRE: Enhancing Earnings Surprise Predictions Through Sparse Autoencoder Feature Selection," Papers 2505.14420, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2505.14420
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David F. Larcker & Anastasia A. Zakolyukina, 2012. "Detecting Deceptive Discussions in Conference Calls," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(2), pages 495-540, May.
    2. Brown, Stephen & Hillegeist, Stephen A. & Lo, Kin, 2004. "Conference calls and information asymmetry," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 343-366, September.
    3. Brian J. Bushee & Ian D. Gow & Daniel J. Taylor, 2018. "Linguistic Complexity in Firm Disclosures: Obfuscation or Information?," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(1), pages 85-121, March.
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