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Dynamic Factor Model-Based Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Portfolio Constraints

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Listed:
  • Jianjun Gao
  • Chengneng Jin
  • Yun Shi
  • Xiangyu Cui

Abstract

Motivated by practical applications, we explore the constrained multi-period mean-variance portfolio selection problem within a market characterized by a dynamic factor model. This model captures predictability in asset returns driven by state variables and incorporates cone-type portfolio constraints that are crucial in practice. The model is broad enough to encompass various dynamic factor frameworks, including practical considerations such as no-short-selling and cardinality constraints. We derive a semi-analytical optimal solution using dynamic programming, revealing it as a piecewise linear feedback policy to wealth, with all factors embedded within the allocation vectors. Additionally, we demonstrate that the portfolio policies are determined by two specific stochastic processes resulting from the stochastic optimizations, for which we provide detailed algorithms. These processes reflect the investor's assessment of future investment opportunities and play a crucial role in characterizing the time consistency and efficiency of the optimal policy through the variance-optimal signed supermartingale measure of the market. We present numerical examples that illustrate the model's application in various settings. Using real market data, we investigate how the factors influence portfolio policies and demonstrate that incorporating the factor structure may enhance out-of-sample performance.

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  • Jianjun Gao & Chengneng Jin & Yun Shi & Xiangyu Cui, 2025. "Dynamic Factor Model-Based Multiperiod Mean-Variance Portfolio Selection with Portfolio Constraints," Papers 2502.17915, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2502.17915
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Li, Chenxing & Maheu, John M, 2020. "A Multivariate GARCH-Jump Mixture Model," MPRA Paper 104770, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    3. Dimitris Bertsimas & Ryan Cory-Wright, 2022. "A Scalable Algorithm for Sparse Portfolio Selection," INFORMS Journal on Computing, INFORMS, vol. 34(3), pages 1489-1511, May.
    4. Campbell, John Y. & Viceira, Luis M., 2002. "Strategic Asset Allocation: Portfolio Choice for Long-Term Investors," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198296942, Decembrie.
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