IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2404.16169.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Next Targets of Activist Funds

Author

Listed:
  • Minwu Kim
  • Sidahmed Benabderrahmane
  • Talal Rahwan

Abstract

This research presents a predictive model to identify potential targets of activist investment funds--entities that acquire significant corporate stakes to influence strategic and operational decisions, ultimately enhancing shareholder value. Predicting such targets is crucial for companies aiming to mitigate intervention risks, activist funds seeking optimal investments, and investors looking to leverage potential stock price gains. Using data from the Russell 3000 index from 2016 to 2022, we evaluated 123 model configurations incorporating diverse imputation, oversampling, and machine learning techniques. Our best model achieved an AUC-ROC of 0.782, demonstrating its capability to effectively predict activist fund targets. To enhance interpretability, we employed the Shapley value method to identify key factors influencing a company's likelihood of being targeted, highlighting the dynamic mechanisms underlying activist fund target selection. These insights offer a powerful tool for proactive corporate governance and informed investment strategies, advancing understanding of the mechanisms driving activist investment decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Minwu Kim & Sidahmed Benabderrahmane & Talal Rahwan, 2024. "Interpretable Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Next Targets of Activist Funds," Papers 2404.16169, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2025.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.16169
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2404.16169
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lucian A. Bebchuk & Alon Brav & Wei Jiang, 2015. "The Long-Term Effects of Hedge Fund Activism," NBER Working Papers 21227, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Franck Bancel & Usha R. Mittoo, 2014. "The Gap between the Theory and Practice of Corporate Valuation: Survey of European Experts[We are ext]," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 26(4), pages 106-117, December.
    3. Nicole Boyson & Robert Mooradian, 2011. "Corporate governance and hedge fund activism," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 169-204, July.
    4. Mukhlynina, Lilia & Nyborg, Kjell G., 2020. "The Choice of Valuation Techniques in Practice: Education Versus Profession," Critical Finance Review, now publishers, vol. 9(1-2), pages 201-265, June.
    5. Francis, Bill B. & Hasan, Iftekhar & Shen, Yinjie (Victor) & Wu, Qiang, 2021. "Do activist hedge funds target female CEOs? The role of CEO gender in hedge fund activism," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(1), pages 372-393.
    6. Caroline Flammer, 2015. "Does Corporate Social Responsibility Lead to Superior Financial Performance? A Regression Discontinuity Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(11), pages 2549-2568, November.
    7. Mark R. DesJardine & Rodolphe Durand, 2020. "Disentangling the effects of hedge fund activism on firm financial and social performance," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(6), pages 1054-1082, June.
    8. Rui Albuquerque & Yrjö Koskinen & Chendi Zhang, 2019. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Firm Risk: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(10), pages 4451-4469, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tamas Barko & Martijn Cremers & Luc Renneboog, 2022. "Shareholder Engagement on Environmental, Social, and Governance Performance," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 180(2), pages 777-812, October.
    2. Simon Rafaqat & Sana Rafaqat & Sahil Rafaqat & Saoul Rafaqat & Dawood Rafaqat, 2023. "Shareholder Activism and Firm Performance: A Review," Journal of Economics and Behavioral Studies, AMH International, vol. 14(4), pages 31-41.
    3. Barros, Victor & Guedes, Maria João & Santos, Joana & Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda, 2023. "Shareholder activism and firms’ performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    4. Caroline Flammer & Michael W. Toffel & Kala Viswanathan, 2021. "Shareholder activism and firms' voluntary disclosure of climate change risks," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(10), pages 1850-1879, October.
    5. Sun, Zeyu & Li, Xiaohui & Xie, Jing & Cheng, C.S., 2023. "How does dividend payout affect corporate social responsibility? A channel analysis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    6. Malik, Ihtisham A. & Chowdhury, Hasibul & Alam, Md Samsul, 2023. "Equity market response to natural disasters: Does firm's corporate social responsibility make difference?," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    7. Angelidis, Timotheos & Michairinas, Athanasios & Sakkas, Athanasios, 2024. "World ESG performance and economic activity," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    8. Shackleton, Mark & Yan, Jiali & Yao, Yaqiong, 2022. "What drives a firm's ES performance? Evidence from stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    9. Iftekhar Hasan & Panagiotis Karavitis & Pantelis Kazakis & Woon Sau Leung, 2025. "Corporate Social Responsibility and Profit Shifting," European Accounting Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(1), pages 1-29, January.
    10. Loureiro, Gilberto & Mendonça, Cesar, 2024. "Do large registered investment funds undermine shareholder activism? Evidence from hedge fund proposals," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    11. Oehler, Andreas & Schmitz, Jonas Tobias, 2021. "Does intensified communication of hedge funds with letters affect abnormal returns?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 127-142.
    12. Kostaris, Konstantinos & Andrikopoulos, Andreas, 2023. "Brokers in beneficial ownership: A network approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    13. Michael L. Barnett & Valentin Dimitrov & Feng Gao, 2024. "The nail that sticks out: corporate social responsibility and shareholder proposals," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 1575-1618, June.
    14. Stephen J. Smulowitz & Didier Cossin & Hongze Lu, 2023. "Managerial Short-Termism and Corporate Social Performance: The Moderating Role of External Monitoring," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 188(4), pages 759-778, December.
    15. Gillan, Stuart L. & Koch, Andrew & Starks, Laura T., 2021. "Firms and social responsibility: A review of ESG and CSR research in corporate finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Jing Jia & Zhongtian Li, 2022. "Corporate Environmental Performance and Financial Distress: Evidence from Australia," Australian Accounting Review, CPA Australia, vol. 32(2), pages 188-200, June.
    17. Jonathan M. Karpoff, 2021. "On a stakeholder model of corporate governance," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 50(2), pages 321-343, June.
    18. Michael Mayberry, 2020. "Good for managers, bad for society? Causal evidence on the association between risk‐taking incentives and corporate social responsibility," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 47(9-10), pages 1182-1214, October.
    19. Flugum, Ryan & Howe, John S., 2020. "Hedge fund activism and analyst uncertainty," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 206-227.
    20. Duong, An Thi Thuy, 2025. "Resilience or returns: Assessing green equity index performance across market regimes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2404.16169. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.