IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/arx/papers/2312.04332.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China's netzero transition

Author

Listed:
  • Chen Chris Gong
  • Falko Ueckerdt
  • Christoph Bertram
  • Yuxin Yin
  • David Bantje
  • Robert Pietzcker
  • Johanna Hoppe
  • Michaja Pehl
  • Gunnar Luderer

Abstract

Decarbonizing China's energy system requires both greening the power supply and end-use electrification. While the latter speeds up with the electric vehicle adoption, a rapid power sector transformation can be technologically and institutionally challenging. Using an integrated assessment model, we analyze the synergy between power sector decarbonization and end-use electrification in China's net-zero pathway from a system perspective. We show that even with a slower coal power phase-out, reaching a high electrification rate of 60% by 2050 is a robust optimal strategy. Comparing emission intensity of typical end-use applications, we find most have reached parity with incumbent fossil fuel technologies even under China's current power mix due to efficiency gains. Since a 10-year delay in coal power phase-out can result in an additional cumulative emission of 28% (4%) of the global 1.5{\deg}C (2{\deg}C) CO2 budget, policy measures should be undertaken today to ensure a power sector transition without unexpected delays.

Suggested Citation

  • Chen Chris Gong & Falko Ueckerdt & Christoph Bertram & Yuxin Yin & David Bantje & Robert Pietzcker & Johanna Hoppe & Michaja Pehl & Gunnar Luderer, 2023. "Robust CO2-abatement from early end-use electrification under uncertain power transition speed in China's netzero transition," Papers 2312.04332, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2312.04332
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://arxiv.org/pdf/2312.04332
    File Function: Latest version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard Wood & Michael Grubb & Annela Anger-Kraavi & Hector Pollitt & Ben Rizzo & Eva Alexandri & Konstantin Stadler & Dan Moran & Edgar Hertwich & Arnold Tukker, 2020. "Beyond peak emission transfers: historical impacts of globalization and future impacts of climate policies on international emission transfers," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(S1), pages 14-27, April.
    2. Jan C. Steckel & Michael Jakob, 2022. "To end coal, adapt to regional realities," Nature, Nature, vol. 607(7917), pages 29-31, July.
    3. Sacchi, R. & Terlouw, T. & Siala, K. & Dirnaichner, A. & Bauer, C. & Cox, B. & Mutel, C. & Daioglou, V. & Luderer, G., 2022. "PRospective EnvironMental Impact asSEment (premise): A streamlined approach to producing databases for prospective life cycle assessment using integrated assessment models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    4. Florian Knobloch & Steef V. Hanssen & Aileen Lam & Hector Pollitt & Pablo Salas & Unnada Chewpreecha & Mark A. J. Huijbregts & Jean-Francois Mercure, 2020. "Net emission reductions from electric cars and heat pumps in 59 world regions over time," Nature Sustainability, Nature, vol. 3(6), pages 437-447, June.
    5. Zhang, Kun & Zhang, Zong-Yong & Liang, Qiao-Mei, 2017. "An empirical analysis of the green paradox in China: From the perspective of fiscal decentralization," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 203-211.
    6. Ryna Yiyun Cui & Nathan Hultman & Diyang Cui & Haewon McJeon & Sha Yu & Morgan R. Edwards & Arijit Sen & Kaihui Song & Christina Bowman & Leon Clarke & Junjie Kang & Jiehong Lou & Fuqiang Yang & Jiaha, 2021. "A plant-by-plant strategy for high-ambition coal power phaseout in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    7. Cheng Zhou & Ruilian Zhang & Julia Loginova & Vigya Sharma & Zhonghua Zhang & Zaijian Qian, 2022. "Institutional Logic of Carbon Neutrality Policies in China: What Can We Learn?," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-16, June.
    8. Allen Blackman & Zhengyan Li & Antung A. Liu, 2018. "Efficacy of Command-and-Control and Market-Based Environmental Regulation in Developing Countries," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 10(1), pages 381-404, October.
    9. Nicole J. Berg & Heleen L. Soest & Andries F. Hof & Michel G. J. Elzen & Detlef P. Vuuren & Wenying Chen & Laurent Drouet & Johannes Emmerling & Shinichiro Fujimori & Niklas Höhne & Alexandre C. Kõber, 2020. "Implications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 162(4), pages 1805-1822, October.
    10. Stephen L. Bi & Nico Bauer & Jessica Jewell, 2023. "Coal-exit alliance must confront freeriding sectors to propel Paris-aligned momentum," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(2), pages 130-139, February.
    11. Falko Ueckerdt & Christian Bauer & Alois Dirnaichner & Jordan Everall & Romain Sacchi & Gunnar Luderer, 2021. "Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 11(5), pages 384-393, May.
    12. Brown, T. & Schlachtberger, D. & Kies, A. & Schramm, S. & Greiner, M., 2018. "Synergies of sector coupling and transmission reinforcement in a cost-optimised, highly renewable European energy system," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 720-739.
    13. Song, Feng & Yu, Zichao & Zhuang, Weiting & Lu, Ao, 2021. "The institutional logic of wind energy integration: What can China learn from the United States to reduce wind curtailment?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    14. Kelly Sims Gallagher & Fang Zhang & Robbie Orvis & Jeffrey Rissman & Qiang Liu, 2019. "Assessing the Policy gaps for achieving China’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10, December.
    15. Zhifu Mi & Jing Meng & Dabo Guan & Yuli Shan & Malin Song & Yi-Ming Wei & Zhu Liu & Klaus Hubacek, 2017. "Chinese CO2 emission flows have reversed since the global financial crisis," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Gunnar Luderer & Silvia Madeddu & Leon Merfort & Falko Ueckerdt & Michaja Pehl & Robert Pietzcker & Marianna Rottoli & Felix Schreyer & Nico Bauer & Lavinia Baumstark & Christoph Bertram & Alois Dirna, 2022. "Author Correction: Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(4), pages 380-381, April.
    17. Zhang, Da & Karplus, Valerie J. & Cassisa, Cyril & Zhang, Xiliang, 2014. "Emissions trading in China: Progress and prospects," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 9-16.
    18. Gunnar Luderer & Silvia Madeddu & Leon Merfort & Falko Ueckerdt & Michaja Pehl & Robert Pietzcker & Marianna Rottoli & Felix Schreyer & Nico Bauer & Lavinia Baumstark & Christoph Bertram & Alois Dirna, 2022. "Impact of declining renewable energy costs on electrification in low-emission scenarios," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(1), pages 32-42, January.
    19. Dorninger, Christian & Hornborg, Alf & Abson, David J. & von Wehrden, Henrik & Schaffartzik, Anke & Giljum, Stefan & Engler, John-Oliver & Feller, Robert L. & Hubacek, Klaus & Wieland, Hanspeter, 2021. "Global patterns of ecologically unequal exchange: Implications for sustainability in the 21st century," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    20. Greg Muttitt & James Price & Steve Pye & Dan Welsby, 2023. "Socio-political feasibility of coal power phase-out and its role in mitigation pathways," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(2), pages 140-147, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Aghahosseini, Arman & Solomon, A.A. & Breyer, Christian & Pregger, Thomas & Simon, Sonja & Strachan, Peter & Jäger-Waldau, Arnulf, 2023. "Energy system transition pathways to meet the global electricity demand for ambitious climate targets and cost competitiveness," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    2. Kirchem, Dana & Schill, Wolf-Peter, 2023. "Power sector effects of green hydrogen production in Germany," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    3. ElSayed, Mai & Aghahosseini, Arman & Caldera, Upeksha & Breyer, Christian, 2023. "Analysing the techno-economic impact of e-fuels and e-chemicals production for exports and carbon dioxide removal on the energy system of sunbelt countries – Case of Egypt," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 343(C).
    4. Sacchi, R. & Bauer, C. & Cox, B. & Mutel, C., 2022. "When, where and how can the electrification of passenger cars reduce greenhouse gas emissions?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    5. Adrian Odenweller & Falko Ueckerdt & Gregory F. Nemet & Miha Jensterle & Gunnar Luderer, 2022. "Probabilistic feasibility space of scaling up green hydrogen supply," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(9), pages 854-865, September.
    6. Hasret Sahin & A. A. Solomon & Arman Aghahosseini & Christian Breyer, 2024. "Systemwide energy return on investment in a sustainable transition towards net zero power systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-15, December.
    7. Frischmuth, Felix & Härtel, Philipp, 2022. "Hydrogen sourcing strategies and cross-sectoral flexibility trade-offs in net-neutral energy scenarios for Europe," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 238(PB).
    8. Adeline Gu'eret & Wolf-Peter Schill & Carlos Gaete-Morales, 2024. "Not flexible enough? Impacts of electric carsharing on a power sector with variable renewables," Papers 2402.19380, arXiv.org.
    9. Adrien Nicolle & Diego Cebreros & Olivier Massol & Emma Jagu, 2023. "Modeling CO2 pipeline systems: An analytical lens for CCS regulation," Post-Print hal-04297191, HAL.
    10. Tian, Xuelin & An, Chunjiang & Chen, Zhikun, 2023. "The role of clean energy in achieving decarbonization of electricity generation, transportation, and heating sectors by 2050: A meta-analysis review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).
    11. Eunsung Oh, 2022. "Fair Virtual Energy Storage System Operation for Smart Energy Communities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-16, August.
    12. Guo, Xuepeng & Pang, Jun, 2023. "Analysis of provincial CO2 emission peaking in China: Insights from production and consumption," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 331(C).
    13. Wang, Yihan & Wen, Zongguo & Lv, Xiaojun & Zhu, Junming, 2023. "The regional discrepancies in the contribution of China’s thermal power plants toward the carbon peaking target," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 337(C).
    14. Oshiro, Ken & Fujimori, Shinichiro, 2022. "Role of hydrogen-based energy carriers as an alternative option to reduce residual emissions associated with mid-century decarbonization goals," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 313(C).
    15. Takuma Watari & André Cabrera Serrenho & Lukas Gast & Jonathan Cullen & Julian Allwood, 2023. "Feasible supply of steel and cement within a carbon budget is likely to fall short of expected global demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-10, December.
    16. Tilsted, Joachim Peter & Bjørn, Anders & Majeau-Bettez, Guillaume & Lund, Jens Friis, 2021. "Accounting matters: Revisiting claims of decoupling and genuine green growth in Nordic countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    17. Maksym Chepeliev, 2023. "GTAP-Power Data Base: Version 11," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 8(2), pages 100-133, December.
    18. Xiang, Xiwang & Ma, Minda & Ma, Xin & Chen, Liming & Cai, Weiguang & Feng, Wei & Ma, Zhili, 2022. "Historical decarbonization of global commercial building operations in the 21st century," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 322(C).
    19. Göke, Leonard & Weibezahn, Jens & Kendziorski, Mario, 2023. "How flexible electrification can integrate fluctuating renewables," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PA).
    20. Song, Feng & Cui, Jian & Yu, Yihua, 2022. "Dynamic volatility spillover effects between wind and solar power generations: Implications for hedging strategies and a sustainable power sector," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).

    More about this item

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2312.04332. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: arXiv administrators (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://arxiv.org/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.