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Unwinding Stochastic Order Flow: When to Warehouse Trades

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  • Marcel Nutz
  • Kevin Webster
  • Long Zhao

Abstract

We study how to unwind stochastic order flow with minimal transaction costs. Stochastic order flow arises, e.g., in the central risk book (CRB), a centralized trading desk that aggregates order flows within a financial institution. The desk can warehouse in-flow orders, ideally netting them against subsequent opposite orders (internalization), or route them to the market (externalization) and incur costs related to price impact and bid-ask spread. We model and solve this problem for a general class of in-flow processes, enabling us to study in detail how in-flow characteristics affect optimal strategy and core trading metrics. Our model allows for an analytic solution in semi-closed form and is readily implementable numerically. Compared with a standard execution problem where the order size is known upfront, the unwind strategy exhibits an additive adjustment for projected future in-flows. Its sign depends on the autocorrelation of orders; only truth-telling (martingale) flow is unwound myopically. In addition to analytic results, we present extensive simulations for different use cases and regimes, and introduce new metrics of practical interest.

Suggested Citation

  • Marcel Nutz & Kevin Webster & Long Zhao, 2023. "Unwinding Stochastic Order Flow: When to Warehouse Trades," Papers 2310.14144, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2310.14144
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Philippe Bergault & Leandro S'anchez-Betancourt, 2024. "A Mean Field Game between Informed Traders and a Broker," Papers 2401.05257, arXiv.org.

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