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Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries

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  • Ida Johnsson
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Cynthia Fan Yang

Abstract

This paper proposes a structural econometric approach to estimating the basic reproduction number ($\mathcal{R}_{0}$) of Covid-19. This approach identifies $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ in a panel regression model by filtering out the effects of mitigating factors on disease diffusion and is easy to implement. We apply the method to data from 48 contiguous U.S. states and a diverse set of countries. Our results reveal a notable concentration of $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ estimates with an average value of 4.5. Through a counterfactual analysis, we highlight a significant underestimation of the $\mathcal{R}_{0}$ when mitigating factors are not appropriately accounted for.

Suggested Citation

  • Ida Johnsson & M. Hashem Pesaran & Cynthia Fan Yang, 2023. "Structural Econometric Estimation of the Basic Reproduction Number for Covid-19 Across U.S. States and Selected Countries," Papers 2309.08619, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2309.08619
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • I12 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health Behavior
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health
    • J18 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Public Policy

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