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CBI-time-changed L\'evy processes for multi-currency modeling

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Listed:
  • Claudio Fontana
  • Alessandro Gnoatto
  • Guillaume Szulda

Abstract

We develop a stochastic volatility framework for modeling multiple currencies based on CBI-time-changed L\'evy processes. The proposed framework captures the typical risk characteristics of FX markets and is coherent with the symmetries of FX rates. Moreover, due to the self-exciting behavior of CBI processes, the volatilities of FX rates exhibit self-exciting dynamics. By relying on the theory of affine processes, we show that our approach is analytically tractable and that the model structure is invariant under a suitable class of risk-neutral measures. A semi-closed pricing formula for currency options is obtained by Fourier methods. We propose two calibration methods, also by relying on deep-learning techniques, and show that a simple specification of the model can achieve a good fit to market data on a currency triangle.

Suggested Citation

  • Claudio Fontana & Alessandro Gnoatto & Guillaume Szulda, 2021. "CBI-time-changed L\'evy processes for multi-currency modeling," Papers 2112.02440, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2112.02440
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Fontana, Claudio & Gnoatto, Alessandro & Szulda, Guillaume, 2023. "CBI-time-changed Lévy processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 323-349.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C02 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General - - - Mathematical Economics
    • C60 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - General
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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