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Decision making with dynamic probabilistic forecasts

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  • Peter Tankov
  • Laura Tinsi

Abstract

We consider a sequential decision making process, such as renewable energy trading or electrical production scheduling, whose outcome depends on the future realization of a random factor, such as a meteorological variable. We assume that the decision maker disposes of a dynamically updated probabilistic forecast (predictive distribution) of the random factor. We propose several stochastic models for the evolution of the probabilistic forecast, and show how these models may be calibrated from ensemble forecasts, commonly provided by weather centers. We then show how these stochastic models can be used to determine optimal decision making strategies depending on the forecast updates. Applications to wind energy trading are given.

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  • Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2021. "Decision making with dynamic probabilistic forecasts," Papers 2106.16047, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2106.16047
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Longstaff, Francis A & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 2001. "Valuing American Options by Simulation: A Simple Least-Squares Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(1), pages 113-147.
    2. Olivier Féron & Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2020. "Price Formation and Optimal Trading in Intraday Electricity Markets with a Major Player," Risks, MDPI, vol. 8(4), pages 1-21, December.
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    5. Olivier F'eron & Peter Tankov & Laura Tinsi, 2020. "Price formation and optimal trading in intraday electricity markets with a major player," Papers 2011.07655, arXiv.org.
    6. Tilmann Gneiting & Fadoua Balabdaoui & Adrian E. Raftery, 2007. "Probabilistic forecasts, calibration and sharpness," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(2), pages 243-268, April.
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    8. René Aïd & P. Gruet & H. Pham, 2016. "An optimal trading problem in intraday electricity markets," Post-Print hal-01609481, HAL.
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    10. Iversen, Emil B. & Morales, Juan M. & Møller, Jan K. & Madsen, Henrik, 2016. "Short-term probabilistic forecasting of wind speed using stochastic differential equations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 981-990.
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Kuppelwieser & David Wozabal, 2023. "Intraday power trading: toward an arms race in weather forecasting?," OR Spectrum: Quantitative Approaches in Management, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research e.V., vol. 45(1), pages 57-83, March.

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