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Crisis contagion in the world trade network

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  • C'elestin Coquid'e
  • Jos'e Lages
  • Dima L. Shepelyansky

Abstract

We present a model of worldwide crisis contagion based on the Google matrix analysis of the world trade network obtained from the UN Comtrade database. The fraction of bankrupted countries exhibits an \textit{on-off} phase transition governed by a bankruptcy threshold $\kappa$ related to the trade balance of the countries. For $\kappa>\kappa_c$, the contagion is circumscribed to less than 10\% of the countries, whereas, for $\kappa

Suggested Citation

  • C'elestin Coquid'e & Jos'e Lages & Dima L. Shepelyansky, 2020. "Crisis contagion in the world trade network," Papers 2002.07100, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2002.07100
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    References listed on IDEAS

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